ure is between three and four hundred per cent. increase over the price which some of the ablest men in the business in this country felt was too high previously thereto, and, no doubt, honestly so felt. We see how easy it is for even the most expert men to fail in reaching a correct conclusion on these unascertainable and difficult questions. To say, therefore, that those men who in rare exceptions had guessed the market price of sugar correctly, or probably less than half correctly, as to the prices that they would be compelled to pay for the replacement of their stock, for no other reason than their sales at this inadequate price, had acted criminally, seems preposterous.
Of course, it may be a theoretical estimate, but there is a general conclusion among economists that only about one man in every ten succeeds who assumes these risks of business. The rest fail chiefly because of the constant variation and inevitable losses of those taking the risk in business not even averaging with the possible gain. This again demonstrates Adam Smith's contention that the ever present tendency is for hope unwisely to overbalance fear.
Business will not and cannot go on, or production continue, much less increase, if, when the occasional year of profit comes, it is to be made more dangerous and cruel than even the years of loss. It is probable that most, if not all, of the men now under indictment for sugar profiteering were only indicted because of a failure on the part of the Government to distinguish between "price" and "value"; and, when the cycle that constitutes business is completed and their stock replaced, they will find that they are much poorer instead of richer than if they had been guided by "value" instead of mere "price." They will wish that they had adhered to Adam Smith and all his fol-
