district on the Yunnan border. The situation was such, in fact, that, failing a strong ruler at Peking, an upheaval had become inevitable, and its occurrence simply a matter of time and oppor- tunity. The Manchus, seeking some means to avert the impend- ing crisis, had tried several methods of concession, intended to placate Young China. In Nov. 1910, they had yielded to the demand of the National Assembly and promised the convening of the promised parliament for 1913 ; six months later, the Regent had agreed to replace the Grand Council by a responsible Cabinet. The Imperial Clan was divided against itself at this critical juncture by a struggle for supreme power between the Regent and the Dowager Empress Lung Yu, widow of H. M. Kuang Hsu; divided also, because several of its leading members, under the influence of Prince Tsai Tao, were in favour of a policy of constitu- tional reform. But even had it presented a united front, the forces which brought about the abdication of the dynasty were beyond its strength.
When, immediately after the outbreak at Hankow, the muti- neers captured the Wuchang mint and the arsenal at Hanyang, it soon became apparent that the Regent possessed no resources either of strength or of statecraft. Seriously alarmed by the rapid spread of the rebellion, he was persuaded to call to his aid the famous Chinese viceroy, Yuan Shih-k'ai, whom he had dis- graced and dismissed from office in Jan. 1909. By an edict of Oct. 141911 Yuan was recalled from his retirement and appointed viceroy of Hunan and Hupeh, with supreme command of the Imperial forces. From this date until his death (June 1916) the direction of affairs at Peking lay in his hands.
Yuan Shih-k'ai's military operations on behalf of the monarchy were half-hearted at best and require but little comment. He took the field towards the end of Oct. but returned to Peking on Nov. 13, having been elected prime minister on the 8th. At the end of Nov., after desultory fighting, the position of the rebels in and around Hankow had become untenable. But by this time the propaganda work done by Sun Yat-sen's emissaries, com- bined with the helplessness of the Manchus, had borne fruit.
Fourteen provinces or rather their officials had declared for the revolutionaries and against the monarchy, whilst the attitude of influential mandarins like Tang Shao-yi and Wu Ting- fang, who had risen to eminence under the Empress Dowager, was indicative of the fact that the movement was not likely to be suppressed by military force. Nanking held out for the Im- perialist cause until the beginning of Dec., at which date Yuan Shih-k'ai agreed to an armistice, for the purpose of discussing the whole situation with the revolutionary leaders. From the outset, after his recall to power, Yuan had done his utmost to stem the tide of disaffection and to preserve the monarchy, shorn of its privileges, as the centre of a reformed constitutional system. He had consistently resisted the demands of the radical ex- tremists, and when, as the result of the increasing demoralization of the court and the sympathetic attitude of the foreign press towards the revolution, Sun Yat-sen's party began seriously to proclaim their intention to establish a republic, he did everything in his power to prevent it. He publicly declared his belief that the overthrow of the throne must mean chaos " amidst which all interests would suffer, and there would be no peace in the empire for several decades." When finally he consented to parley with the revolutionary leaders, he was fighting practically single- handed for the principles in which he believed. The National Assembly, which had adhered to the constitutional programme, had been denounced and superseded by the Kuo Min-tang's Republican Committee at Shanghai, early in November. The British Government and others, which had warmly advocated his recall to office at the beginning of the rebellion, had failed at the critical moment to give him the moral and financial support which he had every reason to expect, and it was evident that without a large foreign loan, his position was hopeless; the Regent had abdicated (Dec. 6) and Tang Shao-yi, the ablest of his lieutenants, had frankly declared his sympathies with the Cantonese republican party.
The armistice negotiations commenced at Hankow on Dec. n, with Tang Shao-yi acting as Imperial delegate. On the i8th they
were transferred to Shanghai upon the demand of the Republican Committee. The result was a foregone conclusion; before the end of the month, the Manchu court had agreed to submit to a National Convention the question of monarchy or republic. On Dec. 25, Dr. Sun Yat-sen, who had been in England when the revolution began, arrived at Shanghai; a week later, a council of provincial delegates at Nanking elected him to be first President of the Chinese Republic, and on Jan. i 1912 he took the oath of office. On the i2th, the court being terrified by bomb outrages at the capital, the Emperor's abdication was proclaimed in an edict which transferred the government to the people's representatives and declared that the constitution should hence- forth be republican. By the same edict, Yuan Shih-k'ai was given full powers to organize a provisional republican govern- ment. On Feb. 14, Dr. Sun Yat-sen resigned the presidency in favour of Yuan Shih-k'ai, who was elected provisional President by the Nanking Council and took the oath of office at Peking on March 10. Li Yuan-hung was elected vice-president and a provisional constitution was adopted by the Nanking delegates. On April 2, the Government of the republic was transferred from Nanking to Peking. A new provisional council was formed consisting of five members from each province, elected by the provincial assemblies, five members each from Inner and Outer Mongolia and Tibet, and one member from Kokonor.
Yuan Shih-k'ai's position as President of the republic was one of great difficulty and danger. He had never been at pains to conceal his dislike for the political ideas of the Cantonese party, or his conviction that the monarchical form of government was best suited to the needs of the Chinese people; in the eyes of the Kuo Min-tang Radicals, he was therefore suspect from the out- set. If they professed to believe in his conversion to Republican- ism, it was because his was the only name likely to inspire the masses with respect for the new regime, and also because they expected him to play the part assigned to him with due respect for the interests of those who had placed him at the head of af- fairs. In addition to the chaos of the internal situation (already clearly manifested in the struggle for supremacy between rival military chieftains) he was faced with grave financial problems, chiefly due to the fact that the fiscal machinery of the empire had been completely disorganized by the revolution. There were, moreover, increasing difficulties in the field of foreign affairs. Nevertheless, by consummate ability of statecraft, he succeeded during the next four years in bringing something like order out of chaos and gradually restoring the authority of the central Govern- ment in the provinces. During his first year in the presidency, the Kuo Min-tang Radicals were still powerful enough to compel him to adopt a policy of watchful waiting and to concentrate his attention upon ways and means for raising money abroad. So long as his treasury remained unreplenished, his position necessarily lacked the prestige which the financial support of the Powers confers, and he had no means of securing the support of the military chieftains, whose troops were usually at the service of the highest bidder. It was not until April 25 1913 that, after prolonged negotiations with the Six-Power group of financiers, Yuan's Minister of Finance succeeded in concluding the " Re- organization " loan, which placed him in possession of the sinews of war to the amount of about 10 millions sterling. His financial position and the moral support of the foreign Powers thus secured, Yuan proceeded to show his hand and to defy the Kuo Min-tang. The latter had secured a powerful majority at the elections held in the beginning of the year. They came to Peking for the open- ing of Parliament (April 7) in a belligerent mood, greatly exasper- ated by the assassination at Shanghai of one of their ablest lead- ers, Sung Chiao-jen, the speaker-elect, whose death was undoubt- edly planned and carried out by the President's orders. As- sembled under these conditions, the life of the new Parliament was not destined to be a long one; its career, indeed, began and ended with the election of speakers for both Houses. Yuan Shih-k'ai refused to recognize its claim to supervise and sanction his loan negotiations and ordered the conclusion of the agreement with the foreign banks in despite of the agitated protests of the Radical leaders. Realizing the danger of their position many
