Page:Popular Science Monthly Volume 19.djvu/503

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ORIGIN AND HISTORY OF LIFE INSURANCE.
487

BRESLAU TABLE.

Age. Living. Age. Living. Age. Living. Age. Living. Age. Living.
1 1000 19 604 37 472 55 292 73 109
2 855 20 598 38 463 56 282 74 98
3 789 21 692 39 454 57 272 75 88
4 760 22 586 40 445 58 262 76 78
5 732 23 579 41 436 59 252 77 68
6 710 24 573 42 427 60 242 78 58
7 692 25 567 43 417 61 232 79 49
8 680 26 560 44 407 62 222 80 41
9 670 27 553 45 397 63 212 81 34
10 661 28 546 46 387 64 202 82 28
11 653 29 539 47 377 65 192 83 23
12 646 30 531 48 367 66 182 84 20
13 640 31 523 49 357 67 172 85 15
14 634 32 515 50 346 68 162 86 11
15 628 33 607 51 335 69 152 87 8
16 622 34 499 52 324 70 142 88 5
17 616 35 490 53 313 71 131 89 3
18 610 36 481 54 302 72 120 90 1

Considering the disadvantages under which he labored, it was a wonderful production. He had no record of the whole population, and only 6,193 births and 5,869 deaths of all ages from which to draw his deductions.

The form of the table has been substantially retained to the present day. It begins with 1,000 children, in the first year of life, of whom 145 die in the course of the year. At the beginning of the second year there are 855 living, of whom 66 die in the course of that year; and so the table continues until, at the age of 90, the last one of the original number will die. The probability of dying in any one year of life is readily ascertained. For instance, in the first year of life, 145 die out of 1,000. Therefore, the probability of dying is 1451000=·145. In the second year 66 die out of 855, which makes the probability 66855=·077. That is to say, according to Halley's table, 1412 per cent. of all newly-born children will die in the first year of life, and about 734 per cent. in the second year. Another interesting deduction pointed out by him is what a modern actuary has called the equation of life. It will be observed that, out of 1,000 at age 1, 499 will survive at 34, which indicates that the chances of dying or living to age 34 are about equal for a child at birth. It may be applied to any other age. At 19 the table shows 604 living, while at 54 there are 302; therefore, a youth at 19 has, to age 54, an equal chance of living or dying.

Whether Halley's table is a correct exposition of the mortality of the time it is difficult to say, since his data may have been insufficient; but the reasoning on which it was based and the conclusions drawn were strictly scientific.

But, while Halley's treatise must have been highly appreciated by mathematicians, the public at large seemed to have remained ignorant