NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 2011
TOP SECRET
LIMITED DISTRIBUTION
COMMUNIST REACTIONS TO CERTAIN US COURSES
OF ACTION WITH RESPECT TO INDOCHINA
THE PROBLEM
To estimate Chinese Communist and Soviet reactions to the courses of action and consequent situations indicated below.[1]
THE ESTIMATE
PART I
ASSUMPTIONS
A. The treaties of independence between France and the Associated States will have been signed.
B. A regional security grouping including at least the Associated States, Thailand, the Philippines, Australia, France, and the United States, and possibly including also New Zealand and the United Kingdom, will have been formed.
C. The Associated States will have publicly requested the direct military participation of members of the regional grouping in the war in Indochina.
D. The French will have undertaken to continue at least the present level of their military commitment in Indochina.
REQUIREMENT 1
To estimate the initial Chinese Communist and Soviet reactions to the participation of US air and naval forces with French Union forces and token Thai and Philippine forces in coordinated ground, naval, and air operations designed to destroy the Communist military forces in Indochina. Air operations would be limited to targets in Indochina. Nuclear weapons would be employed if their use were deemed militarily advantageous but nuclear attacks on the Indochinese civil population as a target system would be avoided.
Chinese Communist Reaction
1. The intervention of US and allied forces in Indochina probably would cause the Chinese Communists to believe that sooner or later they would have to decide whether to
- ↑ The assumptions and estimative requirements stated herein were furnished to the intelligence community for the purposes of this estimate. We interpret the hypothetical action as occurring within the next twelve to eighteen months.
