Notes on the State of Virginia (1802)/Query 08
QUERY VIII.
THE number of its Inhabitants?
The following table ſhews the number of perſons imported for the eſtabliſhment of our colony in its infant ſtate, and the cenſus of inhabitants at different periods, extracted from our hiſtorians and public records, as particularly as I have had opportunities and leiſure to examine them. Succeſſive lines in the ſame year ſhew ſucceſſive periods of time in that year. I have ſtated the cenſus in two different columns, the whole inhabitants having been ſometimes numbered, and ſometimes the tythes only. This term, with us, includes the free males above 16 years of age, and ſlaves above that age of both ſexes. A further examination of our records would render this hiſtory of our population much more ſatisfactory and perfect, by furniſhing a greater number of intermediate terms. Thoſe however which are here ſtated will enable us to calculate, with a conſiderable degree of preciſion, the rate at which we have increaſed.
| Years. | Settlers imported. | Census of Inhabitants. | Census of Tythes. |
| 1607 | 100 | ||
| 40 | |||
| 120 | |||
| 1608 | 130 | ||
| 70 | |||
| 1609 | 400 | ||
| 16 | |||
| 60 | |||
| 1610 | 150 | ||
| 200 | |||
| 1611 | 3 ship loads | ||
| 300 | |||
| 1612 | 80 | ||
| 1617 | 400 | ||
| 1618 | 200 | ||
| 40 | |||
| 600 | |||
| 1619 | 1216 | ||
| 1621 | 1300 | ||
| 1622 | 3800 | ||
| 2500 | |||
| 1628 | 3000 | ||
| 1632 | 2000 | ||
| 1644 | 4822 | ||
| 1645 | 5000 | ||
| 1652 | 7000 | ||
| 1654 | 7209 | ||
| 1700 | 22,000 | ||
| 1748 | 82,100 | ||
| 1759 | 105,000 | ||
| 1772 | 153,000 | ||
| 1782 | 567,614 |
During the infancy of the colony, while numbers were ſmall, wars, importations, and other accidental circumſtances render the progreſſion fluctuating and irregular. By the year 1654, however,
it becomes tolerably uniform, importations having in a great meaſure ceaſed from the diſſolution of the company, and the inhabitants become too numerous to be ſenſibly affected by Indian wars. Beginning at that period, therefore, we find that from thence to the year 1772, our tythes had increaſed from 7209 to 153,000. The whole term being of 118 years, yields a duplication once in every 27¼ years. The intermediate enumerations taken in 1700, 1748, and 1759, furniſh proofs of the uniformity of this progreſſion. Should this race of increaſe continue, we ſhall have between ſix and ſeven millions of inhabitants within 95 years. If we ſuppoſe our country to be bounded, at ſome future day, by the meridian of the mouth of the Great Kanhaway, (within which it has been before conjectured, are 64,461 ſquare miles) there will then be 100 inhabitants for every ſquare mile, which is nearly the ſtate of population in the Britiſh iſlands.
Here I will beg leave to propoſe a doubt. The preſent deſire of America is to produce rapid population by as great importations of foreigners as poſſible. But is this founded in good policy? The advantage propoſed is the multiplication of numbers. Now let us ſuppoſe (for example only) that, in this ſtate, we could double our numbers in one year by the importation of foreigners; and this is a greater acceſſion than the moſt ſanguine advocate for emigration has a right to expect. Then I ſay, beginning with a double ſtock, we ſhall attain any given degree of population only 27 years and 3 months ſooner than if we proceed on our ſingle ſtock. If we propoſe four millions and a half as a competent population for this ſtate, we ſhould be 54½ years attaining it, could we at once double our numbers; and 81¾ years, if we rely on natural propagation, as may be ſeen by the following table.
| Proceeding on our preſent ſtock. |
Proceeding on a double ſtock. | |
| 1781 | 567,614 | 1,135,228 |
| 1808 | 1,135,228 | 2,270,456 |
| 1835 | 2,270,456 | 4,450,912 |
| 1862 | 4,540,912 |
In the firſt column are ſtated periods of 270 years; in the ſecond are our numbers, at each period, as they will be if we proceed on our actual ſtock; and in the third are what they would be, at the ſame periods, were we to ſet out from the double of our preſent ſtock. I have taken the term of four millions and a half of inhabitants for examples ſake only. Yet I am perſuaded it is a greater number than the country ſpoken of, conſidering how much inarable land it contains, can cloath and feed, without a material change in the quality of their diet. But are their no inconveniences to be thrown into the ſcale againſt the advantage expected from a multiplication of numbers by the importation of foreigners? It is for the happineſs of thoſe united in ſociety to harmonize as much as poſſible in matters which they muſt of neceſſity tranſact together. Civil government being the ſole object of forming ſocieties, its adminiſtration muſt be conducted by common conſent. Every ſpecies of government has its ſpecific principles. Ours perhaps are more peculiar than thoſe of any other in the univerſe. It is a compoſition of the freeſt principles of the Engliſh conſtitution, with others derived from natural reaſon. To theſe nothing can be more oppoſed than the maxims of abſolute monarchies. Yet, from ſuch, we are to expect the greateſt number of emigrants. They will bring with them the principles of the governments they leave, imbibed in their early youth; or, if able to throw them off, it will be in exchange for an unbounded licentiouſneſs, paſſing, as is uſual, from one extreme to another. It would be a miracle were they to ſtop preciſely at the point of temperate liberty. Theſe principles, with their language, they will tranſmit to their children. In proportion to their numbers, they will ſhare with us the legiſlation. They will infuſe into it their ſpirit, warp and bias its directions, and render it a heterogenous, incoherent, diſtracted maſs. I may appeal to experience, during the preſent conteſt, for a verification of theſe conjectures. But, if they be not certain in events, are they not poſſible, are they not probable? Is it not ſafer to wait with patience 27 years and three months longe, for the attainment of any degree of population deſired or expected? May not our government be more homogeneous, more peaceable, more durable? Suppoſe 20 millions of republican Americans thrown all of a ſudden into France, what would be the condition of that kingdom? If it would be more turbulent, leſs happy, leſs ſtrong, we may believe that the addition of half a million of foreigners to our preſent numbers would produce a ſimilar effect here. If they come themſelves, they are entitled to all the rights of citizenſhip; but I doubt the expediency of inviting them by extraordinary encouragements. I mean not that theſe doubts ſhould be extended to the importation of uſeful artificers. The policy of that meaſure depends on very different conſiderations. Spare no expence in obtaining them. They will after a while go to the plough and the hoe; but, in the mean time, they will teach us ſomething we do not know. It is not ſo in agriculture. The indifferent ſtate of that among us does not proceed from a want of knowledge merely; it is from our having ſuch quantities of land to waſte as we pleaſe. In Europe the object is to make the moſt of their land, labor being abundant: here it is to make the moſt of our labor, land being abundant.
It will be proper to explain how the numbers for the year 1782 have been obtained; as it was not from a perfect cenſus of the inhabitants. It will at the ſame time develope the proportion between the free inhabitants and ſlaves. The following return of taxable articles for that year was given in.
| 53,289 | free males above 21 years of age. | |
| 211,698 | ſlaves of all ages and ſexes. | |
| 23,766 | not diſtinguished in the returns, but ſaid to be titheable slaves. | |
| 195,489 | horſes. | |
| 609,734 | cattle. | |
| 5,126 | wheels of riding-carriages. | |
| 191 | taverns. |
There were no returns from the 8 counties of Lincoln, Jefferſon, Fayette, Monongahela, Yohogania, Ohio, Northampton, and York. To find the number of ſlaves which ſhould have been returned inſtead of the 23,766 tytheables, we muſt mention that ſome obſervations on a former cenſus had given reaſon to believe that the numbers above and below 16 years of age were equal. The double of this number, therefore, to wit, 47,532 muſt be added to 211,698, which will give us 255,230 ſlaves of all ages and ſexes. To find the number of free inhabitants, we muſt repeat the obſervation, that thoſe above and below 16 are nearly equal. But as the number 53,289 omits the males below 16 and 21 we muſt ſupply them from conjecture. On a former experiment it had appeared that about one-third of our militia, that is, of the males between 16 and 50, were unmarried. Knowing how early marriages takes place here, we ſhall not be far wrong in ſuppoſing that the unmarried part of our militia are thoſe between 16 and 21. If there be young men who do not marry till after 21, there are many who marry before that age. But as the men above 50 were not included in the militia, we will ſuppoſe the unmarried, or thoſe between 16 and 21, to be one-fourth of the whole number above 16, then we have the following calculation:
| 53,289 | free males above 21 years of age. | |
| 17,763 | free males between 16 and 21. | |
| 71,052 | free males under 16. | |
| 142,104 | free females of all ages. | |
| 284,208 | free inhabitants of all ages. | |
| 259,230 | ſlaves of all ages. | |
543,438 inhabitants, excluſive of the 8 counties from which were no returns. In theſe 8 counties in the years 1779 and 1780, were 3,161 militia, Say then,
| 3,161 | free males above the age of 16. | |
| 3,161 | ditto under 16. | |
| 6,322 | free females. | |
12,644 free inhabitants in theſe 8 counties. To find the number of ſlaves, ſay, as 284,208 to 259,230, ſo is 12,644 to 11,532. Adding the third of theſe numbers to the firſt, and the fourth to the ſecond, we have,
| 296,852 | free inhabitants. | |
| 270,762 | ſlaves. | |
567,614 inhabitants of every age, ſex, and condition. But 296,852, the number of free inhabitants, are to 270,762, the number of ſlaves, nearly as 11 to 10. Under the mild treatment our ſlaves experience, and their wholeſome, though coarſe, food, this blot in our country increaſes as faſt, or faſter, than the whites. During the regal government, we had at one time obtained a law, which impoſed ſuch a duty on the importation of ſlaves, as amounted nearly to a prohibition, when one inconſiderate aſſembly, placed under a peculiarity of circumſtance repealed the law. This repeal met a joyful ſanction from the then ſovereign, and no devices, no expedients, which could ever after be attempted by ſubſequent aſſemblies, and they ſeldom met without attempting them, could ſucceed in getting the royal aſſent to a renewal of the duty. In the very firſt ſeſſion held under the republican government, the aſſembly paſſed a law for the perpetual prohibition of the importation of ſlaves. This will in ſome meaſure ſtop the increaſe of this great political and moral evil, while the minds of our citizens may be ripening for a complete emancipation of human nature.