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it is shipped by rail or inland canal to New York, Philadelphia, or Baltimore. Duluth, on Lake Superior, is, surprising to say, the second port in the United portatioa in pohd of tonnage. The Sault de Sainte Marie canal passes two and a half times as much tonnage during the eight months it is open as the Suez canal passes in the entire year. The cheapest transportation in the world is found upon these lakes, the rate being only three-fourths of a mill per ton of wheat per mile. The greater lake vessels, called “ Whalebacks,” carry cargoes up to 250,000 bushels, a bulk difficult to conceive. 700 bushels is a car-load. At that rate the cargo of 250,000 bushels will fill 360 American cars, or 9 trains of 40 cars each. At 20 bushels to the acre, this single cargo would represent the yield of two and a half farms of 5000 acres each, like that described above, with every acre in cultivation. The railways of the North-West have a monopoly of the business of hauling wheat, with the result that it costs 20 cents to ship a bushel of wheat from the Dakota fields to Duluth, which is as much as it costs to forward it from Duluth to Liverpool. The bushel of wheat, or an equivalent amount of flour, can be shipped from Minneapolis or Duluth to almost any point in western Europe for from 20 to 25 cents. What are the prospects of wheat production in the United States? In his presidential address before the Prospects Erifish Association for the Advancement of ot wheat Science (1900), Sir William Crookes painted a produc- rather dark picture of the future of the world’s tion ' wheat production. Among other things he said, “It is almost certain that within a generation the ever-increasing population of the United States will consume all the wheat grown within its borders, and will be driven to import like ourselves.” Americans think that this statement is altogether too pessimistic. Not sufficient account had been taken of the uncultivated land in farms, and of the possibilities of improving the yield, and still further cheapening the product. It is probable that the United States will by 1933 have a population of 133,000,000. This population would require a wheat crop of 700,000,000 bushels for its own use alone. Limiting attention to the great cereal-producing region described above, let us see what the prospects are for increasing the acreage and the yield. The fact that these States contain, according to the last census, over 100,000,000 acres of unimproved land, already enclosed in farms, suggests at once the great possibilities in wheat. But all this land is not immediately available for cultivation. The availableness of the unimproved land in these States is chiefly a question of population and physical features. In States like New York and Pennsylvania, which are much broken up by hills and mountains, and have already a large population, it is probable that the land available for wheat cultivation is now nearly all taken up, although they still have 30 per cent, of unimproved land in farms. In the great States of Michigan, Missouri, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and the Dakotas there is still 40 to 50 per cent, of unimproved land in farms. There are few mountains and hills in these States, and there is still room in them for a large population. It is evident that in States like these wheat culture is destined to increase greatly. Twelve States in this vast cereal-growing region —Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska, Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, North and South Dakota—still have from 20 to 40 per cent, of unimproved land in farms. The total area of these States is nearly four times that of France. Their soil is primarily as fertile as hers. If we put the population of France at 40,000,000, the States in question could, at the same ratio, support a population of 140,000,000. France produced during the five years ending 1897 eight bushels of wheat per
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caput. At eight bushels per caput, the people in these twelve States alone could produce 1,120,000,000 bushels, or 420,000,000 bushels more than will be required by the population of 133,000,000 expected by 1933. This is a great manufacturing as well as a great agricultural region, and it is here, therefore, that a large part of this increase in population will be found. It is evident that there is great room for improvement also in the matter of yield per acre. The average yield of wheat per acre has increased slowly in recent years. So long as there was so much virgin land to be brought under cultivation, it is surprising that it has increased at all, since the tendency everywhere is to “ skin ” the rich, new lands first. Mr B. W. Snow, formerly one of the statisticians of the United States Department of Agriculture, has shown (The Forum, vol. xxviii. p. 94) that the producing capacity of the wheat lands, under favourable weather, increased steadily during the period 1880-1899. He distinguishes between the actual yield and the producing capacity, and bases his comparison upon the latter. He takes the average for each year of five years between 1880 1899, and shows that the producing capacity per acre increased 0'5 bushel between the first and the second period, D3 bushels between the second and the third, and D4 bushels between the third and the fourth. In the period 1880-84, inclusive, the maximum capacity was a little less than 14 bushels, while in the period 189599 the maximum capacity exceeded slightly 17 bushels—• an increase of 3‘2 bushels per acre, or 23 per cent., in less than twenty years. He says, “To account for this increase in the potential yield in our wheat-fields many factors must be taken into consideration. Among these may be mentioned improved methods of ploughing, tile drainage, use of the press drill, which results in greater immunity against winter killing, crop rotation, and, to a very small extent, fertilization. An important factor to be mentioned in this connexion is the change in the distribution of the acreage under wheat, consequent upon falling prices. A decline in the price of wheat rendered its production unprofitable where the rate of yield was small. Gradually these lands were passed over to crops better suited to them; while at the same time the wheat acreage was increased in districts having a better rate of yield.” He predicts that “ the increase in the acre yields in this country has only begun. All that has been accomplished during the period under review may be attributed to improvements in implements for preparing the soil and planting the seed. Wheat is grown year after year without rotation—except in a few cases—on a third or more of our wheat acreage ; not one acre in fifty is directly fertilized for the crop, and only a minimum amount of attention is given to the betterment of seed stock. If, in the face of what cannot be considered less than careless and inefficient agricultural practice, we have increased the wheat capacity of our land by 3‘2 bushels per acre in so short a time, what may we not expect in the way of large acre yields before we experience the hardships of a true wheat famine 1 ” Cotton. Soil and climatic conditions restrict the cultivation of cotton to a group of States in the southern portion of America constituting less than one-fourth of the total area of the United States, yet these States grow over 60 per cent, of all the cotton consumed in the world. The total value of the annual crop is exceeded among the cultivated crops of the United States only by Indian corn, which is grown in every State, and about one year in four by wheat, which is grown in almost every State. Its production engages almost exclusively 7,000,000 of
