damage satellites that include a current limited capability to employ laser systems against satellite sensors. By the mid- to late-2020s, the PRC may field higher power systems that extend the threat to the structures of non-optical satellites.
ASAT Missile Threats. In 2007, the PRC destroyed one of its defunct weather satellites more than 800 kilometers above the Earth with an ASAT missile. The effect of this destructive test generated more than 3,000 pieces of trackable space debris, of which more than 2,700 remain in orbit and most will continue orbiting the Earth for decades. The PLA’s operational ground-based ASAT missile system is intended to target LEO satellites. The PRC’s military units have continued training with ASAT missiles.
The PRC plans to pursue additional ASAT weapons that are able to destroy satellites up to GEO. In 2013, the PRC launched an object into space on a ballistic trajectory with a peak orbital radius above 30,000 kilometers, near GEO altitudes. No new satellites were released from the object, and the launch profile was inconsistent with traditional SLVs, ballistic missiles, or sounding rocket launches for scientific research, suggesting a basic capability could exist to use ASAT technology against satellites in geostationary orbit (GEO).
Orbital Threats. The PRC is developing other sophisticated space-based capabilities, such as satellite inspection and repair. At least some of these capabilities could also function as a weapon. The PRC has launched multiple satellites to conduct scientific experiments on space maintenance technologies and is conducting research on space debris cleanup. The Shijian-17 was the PRC’s first satellite with a robotic arm, technology that could be used in a future system for grappling adversary satellites. In October 2021, the PRC launched another satellite with a robotic arm, the Shijian-21, into GEO, and, in January 2022, it moved a derelict BeiDou navigation satellite to a high graveyard orbit above GEO.
Since at least 2006, the PRC has investigated aerospace engineering aspects associated with space-based kinetic weapons—generally a class of weapon used to attack ground, sea, or air targets from orbit. Space-based kinetic weapons research included methods of reentry, separation of payload, delivery vehicles, and transfer orbits for targeting purposes. In July 2021, the PRC conducted the first fractional orbital launch of an ICBM with a hypersonic glide vehicle from China. This demonstrated the greatest distance flown (~40,000 kilometers) and longest flight time (~100+ minutes) of any Chinese land attack weapons system to date.
NUCLEAR CAPABILITIES
Key Takeaways
- Over the next decade, the PRC will continue to rapidly modernize, diversify, and expand its nuclear forces. Compared to the PLA’s nuclear modernization efforts a decade ago, current efforts dwarf previous attempts in both scale and complexity.
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OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE
Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China
