- vast majority of cases report on events that amount to ordinary objects, atmospheric and natural phenomena, and observer misidentification.
- Although many UAP/UFO cases remain unsolved, based on the lack of evidence of the extraterrestrial origin of even one UAP report and the assessment that all resolved cases to date have ordinary explanations, AARO assess sightings and claims of extraterrestrial visitations have been influenced by a range of factors.
Commonalities of 20th and 21st Century UAP Investigations
- International Security Environment and Technological Surprise
In both periods, changes in the international order brought uncertainty. Concern about the Soviet Union's desire for regional hegemony and military and political superiority contributed to U.S. involvement with conflicts in Korea, Vietnam, and elsewhere, sparked a boom in U.S. technological innovation, and led to widespread fear within society about Soviet capabilities and intentions.
One primary means of competing with the Soviet Union was to collect intelligence on Soviet leadership intentions and military capabilities. The means by which the U.S. accomplished this goal was to develop a range of air- and space-based reconnaissance systems to collect an array of intelligence on the Soviet Union—especially over its territory. During some early UFO investigation efforts, it was deemed essential to determine if UFOs were Soviet "secret weapons" or psychological warfare operations aimed at causing public fear and generating hysteria to undermine U.S. societal morale. Today's global security environment is similarly dynamic. Both the Russian Federation and the PRC seek to alter the international system at the expense of the security of the United States. AARO recognizes that concern with competitor technological surprise is still a real and legitimate driver of UAP investigations today. It is imperative to determine whether or not these sightings represent a risk to flight safety, and whether these sightings represent technological advances that could pose counterintelligence and national security threats.
- Secrecy
The USG's need to maintain secrecy to protect classified information about intelligence sources and methods, military operations and technology, and U.S. vulnerabilities is also a shared context among all UAP investigations. While secrecy is essential to protect U.S. national security interests, it can reduce the public's trust in government. With a gap in information about UFO/UAP investigations, other information sources and narratives, including private UFO investigative organizations and "UFOlogy" emerged to fill that gap. AARO assesses that the classification of prior USG investigations have fueled speculation that the government was hiding knowledge of extraterrestrials, when, in fact, secrecy was and still is intended to deliberately and thoughtfully protect sensitive military and intelligence community programs, capabilities, sources, and methods.
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