bimonthly reports as to the staple crops of the various sections may, for aught I know, be complete. . . .
"I am under the impression, however, that there is in this Bureau abundant room for improvement as well in organization as in conduct and management; for its utterances as to yield of crops do not, in commercial circles, seem to be received with as much confidence as are the private circulars of many produce-dealers.
"The conference I propose would deal with these defects and give efficiency to both.
"But let us suppose, for the sake of illustration and by way of showing the main features of my plan, that the proper meteorological stations have been occupied. The meteorological office, though more recently established, is the more deserving of commendation. Its forecasts of the weather are instructive; but they are too vague, as yet, to be of much practical value. Here is a fair sample of its predictions, called 'Weather Probabilities.' I take this from the first paper I happened to lay my hands on this morning. 'Washington, August 11th.—A low barometer, with cloudy weather; cold local storms will probably extend during the afternoon over New York and New England.' There is nothing in these probabilities that you can utilise. There is no reason why, with the means and appliances under the control of that office, you should not reasonably expect to have timely warnings, at least of certain great changes in the atmosphere, that you can profit by. . . .
"But the time is coming—and my plan will hasten it—when these 'probabilities' will become certainties, and be more specific and practical. . . . Of what use can it be to any living soul to know that a low barometer with local storms will probably extend during to-morrow afternoon over New York and New England? Now, if it had said what counties and parts of New York and New England
