28 June 2017
CSSR 5OD: Final Clearance
U.S. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAM CLIMATE SCIENCE SPECIAL REPORT (CSSR) Fifth-Order Draft Table of Contents Front Matter About This Report .......................................................................................................................................................... 1 Guide to the Report ........................................................................................................................................................ 4
Executive Summary ...................................................................................................................................................... 12
Chapters 1.
Our Globally Changing Climate .................................................................................................................... 38
2.
Physical Drivers of Climate Change ............................................................................................................. 98
3.
Detection and Attribution of Climate Change ............................................................................................. 160
4.
Climate Models, Scenarios, and Projections ............................................................................................... 186
5.
Large-Scale Circulation and Climate Variability ........................................................................................ 228
6.
Temperature Changes in the United States ................................................................................................. 267
7.
Precipitation Change in the United States ................................................................................................... 301
8.
Droughts, Floods, and Hydrology ............................................................................................................... 336
9.
Extreme Storms ........................................................................................................................................... 375
10.
Changes in Land Cover and Terrestrial Biogeochemistry .......................................................................... 405
11.
Arctic Changes and their Effects on Alaska and the Rest of the United States .......................................... 443
12.
Sea Level Rise ............................................................................................................................................. 493
13.
Ocean Acidification and Other Ocean Changes .......................................................................................... 540
14.
Perspectives on Climate Change Mitigation ............................................................................................... 584
15.
Potential Surprises: Compound Extremes and Tipping Elements ............................................................... 608
Appendices A.
Observational Datasets Used in Climate Studies ........................................................................................ 636
B.
Weighting Strategy for the Fourth National Climate Assessment .............................................................. 642
C.
Detection and Attribution Methodologies Overview ................................................................................... 652
D.
Acronyms and Units ..................................................................................................................................... 664
E.
Glossary ........................................................................................................................................................ 669
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