distance deficiencies are the result of defects of alinement and vertical curvature. These are fundamental defects. Their correction involves the necessity of much relocation and the obtainment of new or enlarged rights-of-way, accounting in large measure for the high cost of essential improvements.
The relocation proposed would shorten the total length of rural sections of the system by 384 miles, urban sections by 257 miles, a total reduction of 641 miles from the present length of 37,800 miles. Other improvements proposed would substantially increase the traffic capacity of the system, and speed the flow of travel over it with further advantage in the convenience and safety of the movement.
If in 1948 rural sections of the system had been improved as proposed, 1,400 lives lost in traffic accidents might have been saved. If in the same year the proposed improvement of urban sections had been completed, the savings of travel time alone thereby made possible, valued at a cent a minute, would have amounted to approximately four-fifths of an annual installment of the capital cost estimated, amortized over a period of 20 years.
Cost of needed improvements
The estimated cost of improvements proposed is approximately $11,266,000,000, of which $5,293,000,000 is for sections of the system within the urban areas of cities of 5,000 or more population, and $5,973,000,000 is for rural sections. These costs are estimated on the basis of prices of construction work prevailing in 1948. They may be lowered by a decline of prices in the future.
They are, however, the costs of improvements required now to adapt the system to the needs of its present traffic. As improvements are undertaken, ample provision should be made for the increased traffic that may be anticipated in a period of 20 years. This will increase the costs as estimated, but not greatly.
Capital requirements of such magnitude obviously cannot be met from the revenue of a single year. The improvement is needed now. In part it can be deferred, but deferral means the acceptance of greater costs in lives lost, in inconvenience, and in the actual expense of vehicle operation. Correction of the existing deficiencies by measures at least as costly must be made in any case whenever in the future further improvement is undertaken on the roads and streets now forming the system. Ina period no longer than 20 years, such improvement must be undertaken on every mile.
If the system is to be brought to a state of adequacy in this longest reasonable period, a capital investment averaging probably more than $500,000,000 per year will be required. No less provision can be economically justified.
Much greater economic and social benefit would result from a completion of the proposed improvement in a period far shorter than 20 years. Needs of the national defense further require a substantially more rapid improvement. The improvement can be so advanced with borrowed capital, and amortization over a period of 20 years will hold the annual revenue requirement, less interest, to the same amounts that would be required for a protracted improvement. The interest requirement would probably be more than equaled by benefits accruing to the increments of traffic the future will add to present volumes.
