The Arctic region is warming twice as fast as the rest of the planet, transforming rapidly, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The resulting retreat of sea ice is creating new possibilities for resource extraction, tourism, fishing, and shipping routes between the Atlantic and Pacific. Unpredictable ice floes, remoteness, and harsh conditions will limit operations in the Arctic over the coming decade, but disputes over unresolved maritime boundary claims, military posturing, and economic activity could increase as the Arctic opens.
- Contention over Russia’s claim to 1.2 million square kilometers of Arctic shelf, which Moscow submitted to the UN in August 2015, could increase friction with rival claimants, including Denmark and Canada.
- Opening waterways have encouraged a Western cruise line to plan the first month-long cruise through the Northwest Passage this summer, carrying more than 1,000 passengers. Maritime authorities have cautioned that the voyage is high-risk in terms of navigational security and because of limited search and rescue capabilities.
- Significant thawing of Arctic and sub-Arctic permafrost could rupture the China–Russia crude oil pipeline—an important shared resource between the two countries—and could threaten the integrity of other Russian pipelines, according to recent scientific studies.
Political disputes could arise over climate change responses and policies. Some adversely affected countries may seek relief through international judicial mechanisms. Countries not meeting their pledges to reduce carbon emissions may face heightened political pressure and eventually punitive actions—such as sanctions or pricing carbon into trade—even though the pledges now are voluntary, with no current enforcement mechanism.
Unilateral efforts by countries or groups to test or deploy geoengineering—a largely theoretical field exploring how the climate might be modified intentionally through methods such as injecting aerosols into the stratosphere or chemically changing the reflectivity of clouds—would almost certainly heighten regional or international tensions, especially in the absence of multilateral frameworks or institutions to govern such activities. Some forms of geoengineering experimentation are probably within the financial and technical capacity of some major powers and individuals, although there are fundamental scientific uncertainties about the efficacy and possible unintended consequences of such methods.
- If, for example, geoengineering methods suppressed global temperatures below the point assumed to bring dangerous climate change, such efforts would almost certainly need to be sustained and probably would alter global weather patterns, benefitting some regions at the expense of others, according to the National Academies of Science.
Adverse Effects on Food Prices or Availability
More frequent extreme weather events, ranging from droughts to extreme rainfall, would significantly threaten agricultural production. Moreover, long-term climate trends—such as more very hot days, changing precipitation patterns, and poleward shifts of tropical clouds—along with constraints on land, water, and energy also put upward pressure on food prices. We judge that in countries with weak political
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