£150 is to be raffled by the sale of enough tickets at a penny a-piece to leave a reasonable profit on the undertaking, the purchaser of a ticket builds but little hope on his chances of success. He knows that the chances against him are about forty thousand to one. We are entitled to say that there must be forty thousand chances to one against the star lying in the nebula, unless it should happen that there was some physical connection between the two. We see, however, that the star does lie in the nebula; therefore, for all practical purposes, we conclude that there must be some physical reason for this coincidence, but we can see no physical reason whatever why the line joining the star and the nebula should pass near the earth if the two objects were totally distinct. We are, therefore, forced to the conclusion that the star must be directly associated with the nebula. There are forty thousand chances to one that this is the case, and, as rational people, we adopt this conclusion as the basis of our belief.
This will illustrate the argument used in the actual case of the Great Nebula in Orion and the multiple star in the same constellation. It is true that there are thousands of stars and thousands of nebulae, but there is only one star so marvellously complex in its character as Theta Orionis, and there is only one nebula so ample in its magnificence as that in the sword-handle of Orion. But we find the unique multiple star apparently located in the richest part of the unique nebula. If, therefore, we remember that the region of the nebula referred to is perhaps about a square degree in extent, we are entitled to affirm that there must be forty thousand chances to one that Theta Orionis, the star, is veritably immersed in the
