Northern Rhodesia—for 30 per cent. of her total industrial production is sold in Northern Rhodesia. If she were to take this step—declaring herself independent of her own volition—she could not face the economic sanctions which would be imposed upon her by all the Pan-African territories lying north of the Zambesi, Northern Rhodesia in particular.
Her economy is weak. To pay even the interest on what is expected to be her share of the federal debt absorbs 15 per cent. of her total annual revenue. While in this country we take powers to dissolve the Federation and while we must recognise that we have not the military might which would stop Southern Rhodesia taking independence, were she so inclined, every argument of common sense indicates that she would be very unwise to embark on such a course.
As we dissolve the Federation, we should keep two main strands of thought in the foreground of our minds. First, we should welcome among Europeans and Africans the emotional and fervent desire for independence. This is healthy. But we should make it absolutely clear that the pre-condition for independence is the establishment of majority rule in Southern Rhodesia. This pre-condition has been accepted in every British possession since 1910. In 1910 we granted independence to South Africa with a white minority Government in office. It is not an example which has inspired much confidence. Her Majesty's Government should not be prepared to depart one iota from this pre-condition and in fairness to the Southern Rhodesians we should make this absolutely clear to them.
The second strand is that as we destroy the Federal authority over the three territories, we should try to replace it with a voluntary association among them. The right hon. Member for Wakefield (Mr. Creech Jones) indicated that he was optimistic that this voluntary association would be established. I believe that it will be a great deal harder to establish voluntary association between Southern Rhodesia and Northern Rhodesia than many people imagine.
The reason for this is that the emotional detestation which has developed towards Federation is almost certain—wrongly in my opinion—to overflow on to whatever voluntary association or machinery is established between these territories. The reason for this is that African detestation of federation is not really based on the structure of federation itself but on the policies of federation. It was well put in the Monckton Report which said: "Now, after seven years of Federation African distrust has reached an intensity impossible…to dispel without drastic and fundamental changes both in the structure of the association itself, and in the racial policies of Southern Rhodesia." We are now changing the structure of the Federation, indeed, we are destroying its structure, but I have not seen any indication of any change in the racial policies of Southern Rhodesia. Indeed, since those words were written the racial policies have hardened. The Land Apportionment Act, which was to be abandoned by Sir Edgar Whitehead, is to be retained.
Sir Roy Welensky declared at the Conference that federal civil servants must be treated as humans and not cattle. In passing may I say that I whole heartedly support my right hon. Friend the Member for Thirsk and Malton (Mr. Turton) in his plea for generous treatment of federal civil servants? However, in the same week as Sir Roy was saying that at that conference there were two delegates from Northern Rhodesia who were refused admission to a hotel in Southern Rhodesia. Those are not pinpricks but are deadly personal insults to individuals. This retention of racial policies which are not acceptable in the modern world will make the establishment of voluntary association between North and South very difficult. It will be harder because inevitably, now that political nationalism has succeededin the Northern Territories, it is bound to be followed by economic nationalism, and the Northern Territories will look more readily to the north, to Tanganyika and Uganda and Kenya, for the establishment of economic links than they will look to the south.
Southern Rhodesia has some strong cards. Many of the services—the railway system, the Kariba Dam, coal and copper, and the flow of trade and labour across the boundaries—are inextricably interwoven. These cards will not alter the fact that she will not be able to obtain decent economic relationship with the north until such time as she is prepared to make a really fundamental change in her race policies and in the Constitution.
