Page:OMB Climate Change Fiscal Risk Report 2016.pdf/23

CLIMATE CHANGE: THE FISCAL RISKS FACING THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT

3. WILDFIRE SUPPRESSION

Additional Annual Federal Wildland Fire Suppression Expenditures in 2090 Due to Climate Change:
$2.3 billion ($500 million today)

3 MILLION ACRES BURNED: HISTORICAL ANNUAL AVERAGE[1]	6 MILLION ACRES BURNED: CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO MID-CENTURY ANNUAL AVERAGE	9 MILLION ACRES BURNED: CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO LATE-CENTURY ANNUAL AVERAGE

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While many factors will affect wildland fire and Federal suppression expenditures over the course of this century, the risk posed by climate change for suppression budgets at Federal land management agencies is immense. All else equal, climate change could significantly increase area burned each year in the U.S., causing suppression expenditures to double within just a few decades and nearly triple by late-century.

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Climate Change and Wildland Fire

In 2015, the USDA Forest Service published a report acknowledging the role of climate change in the rising cost of wildfire operations (USDA Forest Service, 2015). Climate change has led to fire seasons that are now on average 78 days longer than they were a half century ago. The six worst fire seasons since 1960 have all occurred since 2000. The number of acres burned each year has doubled in the past few decades due to the combined effects of climatic factors and a legacy of aggressive fire suppression—and may double again in the next few decades. Higher temperatures and variable and unpredictable precipitation are magnifying the risk and driving up the cost of suppressing wildfire, compounding the effects of increasing development in the wildland-urban interface (WUI). The Forest Service noted that, as the impacts of climate change intensify, wildland fire management efforts will be further complicated by limited water availability for suppression, more fire-prone vegetative composition, and further lengthening of the fire season—reaching up to 300 days in many areas of the country (USDA Forest Service, 2015). While Federal fire suppression expenditures represent a small portion of the total Federal Budget, they comprise a large and growing portion of the budgets of Federal land management agencies.

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1. Acres burned on Federal land in the continental United States (excluding Alaska).