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Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3
NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 2011
TOP SECRET – Sensitive
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| 26. | The situation in North and South VN is analyzed and the scope of the communist threat to SVN is estimated for the following year. The analysis concludes that the DRV is in thorough political control in North VN and "when Ho is no longer active, there will probably be a struggle for power between the Moscow-oriented and the Peking-oriented elements of the Party." Dissatisfaction continues in South VN with Diem's leadership. The Army continues to be a major factor in future political developments in the South. The outlook is for a prolonged and difficult struggle between the VC insurgents and the GVN. NIE 14.3/53-61, 15 August 1961 | 245 |
| 27. | The President approves the following actions: (1) intensification of diplomatic efforts to achieve Souvanna's agreement to the Paris proposals; (2 authorization to undertake conversations with SEATO allies on an enlargement of the concept of SEATO Plan 5; and (3) an increase in U.S. advisors in Laos. NSAM 80, 29 August 1961 | 247 |
| 28. | The JCS sends the Secretary of Defense a draft memorandum for the President on military intervention in Laos. The JCS suggests that if the President decides that U.S. forces should be employed in Laos, that SEATO Plan 5 is the proper basic vehicle for the contemplated action. The political objective of the intervention is to confront the Sino-Soviet Bloc with a military force of Asian and Western powers capable of stopping the communist advance. JCS Memorandum for Secretary of Defense, JCSM 661-61, 20 September, 1961 | 249 |
| 29. | The Bureau of Intelligence and Research assesses the crisis in South VN and analyzes the short term prospects. The study recognizes that communist progress toward its objective of overthrowing President Diem has been substantial. Since 1960, more than 6,500 civilians, officers, and military personnel have been killed or kidnapped. Recent U.S. support has raised Diem's political stature, but there has been no conclusive reversal of deteriorating trends. The security situation remains unimproved. However, the Government's comprehensive CIP, supported by U.S. aid, is beginning to show favorable results. Over the next year, developments in Laos may have more influence on VN than any improvement in the Diem Government. Department of State Research Memorandum RFE-1, 29 September 1961 | 258 |
| 30. | It is estimated that present armed, full-time VC strength is about 16,000, an increase of 12,000 since April of 1960, |
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TOP SECRET – Sensitive
