Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3
NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 2011
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2.
The domestic political repercussions of the Communist insurgency have also been severe. Numerous officials at all levels of the government and the military and security establishments have criticized Diem's handling of the security situation and have seriously questioned his ability to lead the people during what they regard as the most critical period since the end of the Indochina war. Their concern with the Communist threat, however, is almost inseparably entwined with an accumulation of grievances principally over Diem's failure to delegate responsibility, the power exercised by members of Diem's family, and Diem's methods of policing the attitudes and loyalty of the government bureaucracy. Open deprecation of Diem's leadership on these and other grounds has increased sharply among intellectual-elite circles and disgruntled ex-politicians in Saigon, largely a politically impotent however vocal lot, and to a lesser extent, among labor and business elements.
Recent developments—including Diem's outstanding success at the presidential polls last April and some modest political reforms to date but, more importantly, strong US public manifestations of support and a substantial increase in US military and economic aid—have given Diem something of a political reprieve. However, the political situation remains fluid and, as yet, there has been no conclusive reversal of deteriorating trends. Although reports of coup-plotting and of criticism of Diem have decreased in recent months, their persistence is indicative of the continuing and potentially explosive political situation in South Vietnam. Moreover, below the surface of open discontent, there is probably a growing and increasingly desperate element of dissenters who are silent either because of fear of being suppressed or because of the realization that there is little they can do legally to improve conditions.
Neither has there been any conclusive improvement in the security situation although the government's comprehensive counterinsurgency program, supported by substantial US aid, is beginning to show favorable results. The Communists can be expected to maintain a pressing and diversified campaign of guerrilla-terrorist and subversive warfare, and there are strong indications they will attempt a greater armed effort after the end of the rainy season later this year; however, they may continue to avoid any large-scale engagement with the increasingly aggressive Vietnamese army, except in places and at times of their own choosing. In the short run, the Communist apparatus does not appear to have the capacity to foment a large-scale insurrection or to seize control of the government without considerable assistance from North Vietnam, which would necessarily be of such magnitude that it would be tantamount to overt military aggression. Barring such a development and given effective implementation of the counterinsurgency plan, the government should be able to reduce somewhat the level of Communist insurgency during the next year or so and conceivable even reverse the trend against the Communists. In the longer run, Communist insurgency can be substantially reduced but the government cannot, within the foreseeable future, eliminate it entirely, principally because of the government's inability to seal completely South Vietnam's frontiers with North Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia.
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