Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3
NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 2011
SECRET
19 April 1961
VIETNAM
1. Background
Vietnam today is largely the child of the 1954 Geneva Agreement.
The Geneva Agreement was billed as a "cease-fire" between the French and Vietminh armed forces for all of Indo-China, and was forged in the gloom of the French disaster at Dien-Bien-Phu. The British and Soviets were its sponsors. The U. S. was an observer, not a signatory.
The political portions introduced into the agreement by the Communists should be noted carefully. Among these are the temporary partition of Vietnam with provision for a plebiscite, the establishing of an international inspection commission, and a proviso for keeping a military status quo in weaponry.
Vietnam was partitioned at the 17th Parallel. This gave the Communist North the majority of the population (estimated then at 14 million) and its most important industries (including coal and cement). The Free South had an estimated 12 million people and an export potential of rice and rubber.
The plebiscite was to be held in 1956, to determine whether Vietnam was to be Free or Communist. Communist control over the majority of the population seemed to make the outcome plain to predict. However, the vigor of the Ngo Dinh Diem government in making Free Vietnam a viable state, plus the movement of nearly a million refugee s from the Communist North to the Free South, changed the political climate strongly by the end of 1955. The Soviet and British sponsors of the agreement then, decided that the plebiscite should be postponed indefinitely.
