Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3
NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 2011
SECOND DRAFT
Col. E. F. Black
28 April
EFFECT OF A POLITICAL SETTLEMENT IN LAOS ON THE PROPOSED
PROGRAM OF ACTION FOR VIETNAM
If agreement is reached on a cease fire, political negotiations on the future of Laos will begin on May 12 at the Fourteen Power Conference in Geneva. However, the April 26th statement onLaos by the Chinese Communist indicates that the Con~unist members of that conference intend to expand the negotiations to include other areas of Southeast Asia. As a result, it can be expected that the Fourteen Power Conference will be prolonged, covering several months or more.
The effect of these negotiations on the Proposed Program of Action for Vietnam are threefold:
First, the very fact that the Fourteen Powers are meeting under essentially the same ground rules as the 1954 Geneva Accords, including the concept of an ICC mechanism in Laos, Vietnam and Cambodia, could have a politically inhibiting effect on any significant measures which the U.S. might undertake to prevent a Communist take-over in South Vietnam.
Second, as has been their practice in the past, the Communists can be expected to use the cover of an international negotiation to expand their subversive activities. In this case, close coordination
SECRET
