Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3
NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 2011
TOP SECRET – Sensitive
Fall's thesis was challenged by a senior U.S. adviser to the GVN, who argued that the increasing casualty figures represented not a structured attempt to overthrow the GVN, but were simply a product of police reporting in the hinterlands.140 There can be no doubt that the latter view was partially correct: neither the U.S. nor the GVN knew what was "normal" in the rural areas, and police reporting, with U.S. aid, had been improved. But the deadly figures continued to mount. George A. Carver of the CIA, in his 1966 Foreign Affairs article, agreed with Fall:
"A pattern of politically motivated terror began to emerge, directed against the representatives of the Saigon government and concentrated on the very bad and the very good. The former were liquidated to win favor with the peasantry; the latter because their effectiveness was a bar to the achievement of Communist objectives. The terror was directed not only against officials but against all whose operations were essential to the functioning of organized political society, school teachers, health workers, agricultural officials, etc. The scale and scope of this terrorist and insurrectionary activity mounted slowly and steadily. By the end of 1958 the participants in this incipient insurgency, whom Saigon quite accurately termed the "Viet Cong," constituted a serious threat to South Viet Nam's political stability."141
Like most other statistics concerning Vietnam, figures on the extent of the terrorism varied widely. The GVN reported to the ICC that in 1957, 1958, and the first half of 1959, Viet Cong murdered 65 village officials, 51 civilians, 28 Civil Guardsmen, and 10 soldiers.142 GVN official reports provided the U.S. Embassy in Saigon recorded a significantly greater toll of civilians:
CIVILIAN ASSASSINATIONS AND
KIDNAPPINGS IN SOUTH VIETNAM
By Quarter, From GVN Reports to U.S. Embassy143
| | 1958 | | 1959 | | 1960 | ||||||||||
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Total | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Total | First 5 Months | |||||
| Murders | 72 | 51 | 26 | 44 | 52 | 34 | 46 | 97 | |||||||
| Total | 193 | 233 | 780 | ||||||||||||
| Abductions | 73 | 32 | 66 | 65 | 44 | 53 | 67 | 179 | |||||||
| Total | 236 | 343 | 282 | ||||||||||||
Journalists and scholars, studying open sources, put the figures even higher. Douglas Pike reported 1700 assassinations and 2000 abductions in the years 1957-1960.144 Bernard Fall estimated murders of low-level GVN officials as follows:
| May 1957 | May 1958 | May 1959 | May 1960 | May 1961 | ||||
| 700 | 1200 | 2500 | 4000 |
Fall reported that the GVN lost almost 20% of its village chiefs in 1957
