Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3
NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 2011
TOP SECRET – Sensitive
" …if the Communists decide to exercise their capability for armed intimidation and terror they could quickly reassert political control or influence) at least in some rural areas where GVN authority is tenuous.
"During the past year the Communists in South Vietnam have remained generally quiescent. They have passed by a number of opportunities to embarrass the Diem regime. Although some cadres and supplies are being infiltrated across the 17th parallel) the DRV probably has not sent any large scale reinforcement or supply to the south. Communist activity in the south appears to concentrate on protecting vital bases and supply caches ) developing clandestine paramilitary organizations) and implementing a broad program of infiltration and subversion. While seeking to maintain intact as much of their armed strength as possible) their main activity seems to be an effort to weaken the Diem government by subversive and political tactics. Communi st directives indicate that penetration and subversion of the GVN military and security forces is a major objective… " (Ibid., p. 11)
But the communists' choices were narrowing all the time:
"The DRV probably estimates that its chances for securing control of South Vietnam by means short of open attack or large scale guerrilla action supported from the north will gradually diminish with the passage of time .... The DRV probably also believes that its covert assets in South Vietnam will gradually decline if the Diem government is permitted to concentrate on internal security and economic problems free of external harassment." (Ibid., pp. 12-13)
Thus,
"The only remaining course of action holding out some promise for the early achievement of Communist control in South Vietnam appears to be the development of large scale guerrilla warfare in the south. In recent weeks a number of reports from sources of untested reliability have indicated that the Communists may have started preparations in both South Vietnam and in the north to begin guerrilla action. DRV allegations of Vietnamese violations of the demilitarized zone along the 17th parallel and Communist claims of US-Diem plans to violate the Armistice could be propaganda cover for the initiation of guerrilla action against the south." (Ibid., p. 13)
