Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3
NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 2011
TOP SECRET – Sensitive
Vietnam and the US of violations. It is seeking to enhance its international prestige and position, and to secure the broadest possible support for the political settlement envisaged at the Geneva Conference which it still insists must eventually be implemented."
"The DRV will probably continue for the next year or two to restrict its campaign for reunification to 'peaceful' means. However, the DRV will continue its efforts to infiltrate and to subvert official and nonofficial organizations and to exploit dissident and dissatisfied groups in South Vietnam. It would probably not use its paramilitary forces in South Vietnam to initiate widespread guerrilla activity unless it estimated that the situation in South Vietnam had so deteriorated that such action could overthrow the government. The DRV will continue to have the capability to overrun South Vietnam in a relatively short time if opposed only by South Vietnamese forces, but it would only launch such an attack if the DRV together with Moscow and Peiping were to estimate that such action carried little risk of military intervention by the US."
By mid-1957, the security outlook in South Vietnam, according to MAAG's intelligence, was rosy indeed; the only dark clouds hovered over the Viet Cong (MAAG, "Country Statement … , 15 July 1957):
"In the past six months Dissident Sect strengths have fallen off. Numerically the Hoa Hao Sect has remained about the same (estimated at 850-950 armed men) but its power has been greatly diminished due to continuous government military operations, the improvement of the Civil Guard and Self-Defense Corps, the capture of bases and equipment by government forces, and the resulting loss in morale. Cao Dai and Binh Xuyen military forces are negligible ....
"The Viet Cong guerrillas and propagandists, however, are still waging a grim battle for survival. In addition to an accelerated propaganda campaign, the Communists have been forming 'front' organizations to influence at least portions of all anti-government minorities. Some of these organizations are militant, some political. An example of the former is the 'Vietnamese Peoples' Liberation Movement Forces,' a military unit composed of ex-Cao Dai, ex-Hoa Hao, ex-Binh Xuyen, escaped political prisoners, and Viet Cong cadres. An example of the latter is the 'Vietnam-Cambodian Buddhist Association', one of several organizations seeking to spread the theory of 'Peace and Co-existence.' The armed strength of Viet cong-controlled units in Free Vietnam is now estimated at approximately 1,500."
