Page:PettyWilliam1899EconomicWritingsVol2.djvu/192

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Further Observation on the Dublin-Bills.
497

People have increased but from 1696, to 2263, according to which proportion, the 3850 Houses Anno 1671, should Anno 1682 have been but 5143, wherefore some fault may be suspected as aforesaid, when Farming the Hearth-mony was in agitation[1].

2. The Hearths have encreased according to the Burials, and ⅓ of the said increase more, viz. the Burials Anno 1671 were 1696, the ⅓ whereof is 563, which put together makes 2259, which is near the number of Burials Anno 1682. But the Hearths Anno 1671 were 17500, whereof the ⅓ is 5833, making in all but 23333; whereas the whole Hearths |3| Anno 1682 were 25369, viz. ⅓ and better of the said 5833 more.

3. The Housing were Anno 1671, but 3850, which if they had encreased Anno 1682 but according to the Burials, they had been but 5143, or according to the Hearths, had been but 5488, whereas they appear 6025, encreasing double to the Hearths. So as 'tis likely there hath been some errour in the said Account of the Housing, unless the new Housing be very small, and have but one Chimney apiece, and that ¼ part of them are untenanted. On the other hand, 'tis more likely that when 1696 dy'd per An. there were near 6000; for 6000 Houses at 8 Inhabitants per House, would make the number of the People to be 48 Thousand, and the number of 1696 that died according to the Rule of One out of 30, would have made the number of Inhabitants about 50 Thousand: For which reason I continue to |4| believe there was some Errour in the Accompt of 3850 Houses as aforesaid, and the rather because there is no ground from experience to think that in 11 year, the Houses in Dublin have encreased from 3850 to 6025.

Moreover, I rather think that the number of 6025 is yet short, because that number at 8 heads per House makes the Inhabitants to be but 48200; whereas the 2263 who died in the year 1682, according to the aforemention'd Rule of one dying out of 30 makes the number of People to be 67890;

  1. In the years 1674—75. It appears that Petty had suggested to Essex certain reforms in the collection of the hearth money, for the farm of which he was one of the bidders. Fitzmaurice, 169, Capel Letters, pp. 399—418.