28. The high rate of attrition among Wagner fighters in battles in Ukraine led some to call them “cannon fodder”[1] and to highlight their “suicidal tactics”.[2] In January 2023, the head of the charity Russia Behind Bars estimated that, of the fighters that the network had recruited from Russian prisons, around 80% were dead or missing.[3] Speaking of Wagner fighters’ activities in Ukraine, the Parliamentary Under Secretary of State (Europe), Leo Docherty MP, said:
Their appalling and obvious brutality, which they themselves celebrate, diminishes their status, their deniability and their brand, and therefore their utility and attractiveness as a partner.[4]
He added, however, that Wagner’s business model remains “potent”.[5] Even if that is the case, Wagner fighters do not always appear to be particularly competent.
National security implications
29. The Wagner Network’s activities affect the UK’s national security. Looking first to our near neighbourhood, its fighters are directly participating in the renewed illegal invasion of Ukraine. The network’s activities in other countries are also believed to be assisting the financing of the Russian war machine (paragraph 50). The Prime Minister has said that
Ukraine’s security is all of our security. Russia’s invasion and continuing occupation of Georgia, invasion and occupation of Crimea, threats to the UK homeland and attempts to destroy Ukraine are assaults on European security[6]
Wider security consequences of the Wagner Network’s activities include:
- Risk to relations with nations that uphold the rules-based international order: Wagner activities may undermine the viability of UK Embassies, particularly in Africa. Russian influence—including via likely Wagner influence operations—significantly degraded France’s diplomatic relations with many African
- ↑ Wagner POW recruited from Russian prison ‘used as cannon fodder’: Life on the frontline, The Telegraph, 20 May 2023; Cannon Fodder for “Putin’s Chef” | Wilson Center, 9 January 2023
- ↑ Wagner Group insider reveals desperate tactics as convicted prisoners are sent to die in waves | Daily Mail Online, 4 February 2023
- ↑ Meduza, ‘Russia Behind Bars: Wagner Group’s losses 80 percent of 50K inmate-recruits’, 23 January 2023 (accessed 17 July 2023)
- ↑ Q223
- ↑ Q223
- ↑ HM Government, Integrated Review Refresh 2023: Responding to a more contested and volatile world, CP 811, March 2023, p 3
