Special Causes affecting the Direction of Trade
The history of the past few years will, I think, show that there have been very special reasons why exports should have fallen off, and why imports should have risen. As stated above, foreign exchanges are the only indication we have whether there is an undue excess of imports; the tendency of the foreign exchanges £nds its best expression in the average market rates of discount; so long as that rate is lower here than in other monetary centres, it is clear that the foreign exchanges have not been against us. The following is a table showing the average market rate in London, Paris, and Berlin, since 1885, and the imports of gold from South Africa:—
| Average Market Rate of Discount | Gold Bullion and Specie imported from British South Africa | ||||
| London. | Paris. | Berlin. | 000's omitted £ | ||
| 1885 | 2.04 | 2.46 | 2.91 | 543 | |
| 1886 | 2.05 | 2.23 | 2.15 | 271 | |
| 1887 | 2.36 | 2.42 | 2.32 | 231 | |
| 1888 | 2.38 | 2.75 | 2.12 | 847 | |
| 1889 | 2.70 | 2.65 | 2.70 | 1,442 | |
| 1890 | 3.68 | 2.64 | 3.75 | 1,877 | |
| 1891 | 2.50 | 2.58 | 3.00 | 2,490 | |
| 1892 | 1.47 | 1.88 | 1.78 | 4,300 | |
| 1893 | 2.10 | 2.22 | 3.18 | 5,325 | |
| 1894 | 0.97 | 1.77 | 1.73 | 7,364 | |
| 1895 | 0.80 | 1.59 | 2.01 | 8,354 | |
| 1896 | 0.80 | 1.75 | 3.05 | 8,003 | |
| 1897 | 1.79 | 1.81 | 3.09 | 13,621 | |
| 1898 | 2.59 | 2.07 | 3.57 | 16,769 | |
| 1899 | 3.25 | 2.71 | 4.47 | 15,015 | |
| 1900 | 3.66 | 3.13 | 4.56 | 379 | |
| 1901 | 3.16 | 2.44 | 8.04 | 1,962 | |
| 1902 | 2.97 | 2.37 | 2.19 | 7,947 | |
It will be seen that with the exception of the year 1890, the year of the Baring crisis, it was not till 1898 that our rate was above that of Paris, and not till 1901 that our rate was above that of Berlin. Until 1898 our rate was very materially below that of both places.
