Page:The Economic Journal Volume 1.djvu/219

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NOTES AND MEMORANDA
197

held out to professional Enunciars. (2.) The new German and Prussian loans were issuad in February on a different principle. The price was pitched somewhat low, and the result was than the whole amount of 450 million marks was applied for forty times over; not that this multiplied sum was actually provided in cash, but German bankers and others subscribed forty times as much as they wanted, with the idea that the more they asked fur the more they would get. Having got what they wanted they immediately proceeded to retail the security, which soon after the issue fell below the minimum price for a time. This did not matter to the German Government, which obtained the financial prestige and business glory of making a large new loan successful. The potency of half per cent. in modern money markets is one of their most remarkable characteristics. In Mr. Goschen's conversion of British three per cents. a much smaller commission helped materially his memorable success.


Does Speculation raise Prices?—Without debating this question generally, a bill has been presented to the House of Commons which, we may venture to say, begs it. The preamble to the bill assumes that speculation in pig-iron 'warrants' is mischievous, and should be declared illegal and punishable if persisted in. The ground of this proposal is that opportunity for speculation in pig-iron is increased by the facilities presented, when all that need change hands is a warrant, or piece of paper with which the most fastidious speculator need not soil his fingers. The intentions of the promoters of the bill are no doubt very good, but between intentions and practice there is always a wide difference, and it is to be feared that such proposals tend to do more harm than good. It is always the unscrupulous people who can evade regulations or Acts of Parliament, while the legitimate trader is often frightened out of open dealing by over legislation, and sometimes resorts to devious practices to the detriment of his own credit, and to the injury of the general standard of trading morality. It is difficult, however, to believe that the preamble of such a bill can be proved. There is just as much opportunity to speculate for the fall as for the rise. Speculators drive either movement to an extreme; but it is very doubtful that any speculation, however facile, permanently or on the average raises the prices of the articles speculated in. We shall be told that there are hundreds of speculative shares and other securities on the Stock Exchange which owe their market value to nothing but the convenience which such counters offer to bulls and bears; but there again we have bears to consider as well as bulls, and if there is intrinsic valuelessness in a security, it will be fastened on by bears as readily as by bulls. It is true that the supply of a given security is limited, whilst the supply of money with which to buy it is almost unlimited, and therefore bears are often cornered. But, if there were no other reason for speculation than the cornering of bears, it would soon die out. Those American shares which are regarded as simply counters have an intrinsic value, because they are taken by leviathan railway kings, who want to get the control