34? THE ECONOMIC JOURNAL in the United States. ! have endeavoured to explain elsewhere ? why these textile materials have never been produced in the United States, and why high duties upon them have never had the expected effect of stimulating their domestic production; and the length of the I?resent article, already excessive, compels me to refer the interested reader to that exposition. It is enough to say here that these higher duties will certainly not have their ex- pected effect of stimulating domestic I?roduction; that they will hamper to a certain extent the industry for which hemp and flax are raw materials; and that they have apparently not succeeded, more than the other provisions which we have been discussing, in maintaining the faith of the farmers in the Republican party. They are among those parts of the I?rotective system which, in case of another defeat of the Republicans, may be expected first to disappear. In conclusion, I may add a word as to the directions into which the new Act is likely to turn the industries of the U?ited States, and as to its bearing on the probable permanent develop- ment of those industries. The most effective I?rovisions of the new measure that is, those most .likely to stimulate the domestic I?roduction of articles hitherto imI?orted--are the in- creased duties on the finer grades of cotton, woolien, linen, and textile fabrics. These have been imported very largely from England, Germany, and France. Some of them doubtless will now be manufactured at home. The extent of the change will probably be lessened by the outcome of the recent elections; for the defeat of the high tariff I?arty suggests a I?ossibility that the new/ duties will be repealed before many years pass, and may cause manufacturers to hesitate in setting up any expensive plant. But some of the favoured goods can be made without much. new investment, by modifying and ad. apting existing machinery; and in some cases the ?nvestment w?ll very likely be made after all, in the hope that the duties will hold as long as the machinery lasts. On the other hand, it may be a question whether American manufacturers can attain the superiority in style and finish which largely explains the continued importation of so many fabrics under the duties, already high, of the previous Tariff Acts; and the actual change in the international division of labour may be less than is expected either by the f?ends or the opponents of the Act of 1890. Such as it is, the change will divert American labour and ? In an article on ' Some Aspects of the Tariff Question,' in the Q?artcrly Journal of Econ?nics, April, 1889, vol. III., pp. 259-292.
