CHAPTER II.
THE CHANGING STRATEGIC
ENVIRONMENTSince the drafting of the last assessment on the effects of possible NATO membership for Finland close to ten years ago, the strategic environment has undergone wrenching change. The post-Cold War era which began around 1990 has, in effect, been replaced by a multipolar dispensation which has yet to receive a name but some of whose main characteristics can be summarised as follows:
- The shift away from an order in which the United States was the sole superpower – indeed, some called it a ‘hyperpower’ – and in which the West, broadly speaking, tended to set the rules of international conduct.
- The rise of China as a potential peer competitor of the US, and the advent of East Asia as the main and most dynamic hub of a global economy in which the European Union has been underperforming.
- The emergence of attempts, notably via the BRICS nations, to set international rules outside of the Western nexus and, in the case of Russia, to revise the legal bases of the post-Cold War order in Europe.
- The limits of the ability of military power, mainly but not only Western, to secure decisive and desirable results in a broader Middle East in the throes of deep, sustained and often violent change.
These broad changes impose new constraints on America’s strategic reach, notably in Europe, and have thrown up new challenges for the European Union. This general “hardening” of the strategic context has specific implications for Finland and its security and defence choices.
THE EFFECTS OF FINLAND'S POSSIBLE NATO MEMBERSHIP ● AN ASSESSMENT | 11
