extent that Finland attaches great value to its territorial defence, expeditionary military contributions should not be allowed to dimension Finland’s defence effort. Participation in coalition operations may be politically and symbolically important but should not constitute a defining factor in force planning terms. From the NATO perspective, the existence of Finland’s territorial defence as a member of NATO would cramp the military options of Russian force planners vis-à-vis the Baltic States.
However, a much more agile Russian decision and implementation capability will impose additional burdens in terms of response times on mobilisation-based territorial defence, whether or not Finland joins NATO.
NUCLEAR DIMENSION. In none of the membership options would there be any strategic or military reason for Finland to be invited to station nuclear weapons on its territory or to acquire dual-capable aircraft. Strategic coupling between the US and Europe does not require such measures. Indeed, for NATO, forward-basing such capabilities in Finland would be a factor of vulnerability as well as of escalation instability in the event of a “use-them or lose-them” situation.
3. Defence and military implications for Finland
From the NATO standpoint, Finland would fit readily into the NATO family in practical terms. Its military forces meet NATO standards, and its defence and strategic posture vis-à-vis Russia is consistent with NATO aims and policies. From Finland’s perspective, the same remark applies: NATO policy and requirements are generally congruent with the needs of Finnish defence policy.
DEFENCE PLANNING AND COMMAND STRUCTURE. As a member of NATO, Finland would be directly involved in NATO defence planning and in the command structure. This would represent a step-change vis-à-vis current military cooperation by Finland with NATO: Finland would be part of the overall benchmarking process between the members, and a measure of coherence could be established between Finnish defence preparations and the collective and individual preparations of NATO and its members. The Finnish military and civil servants would have their billets in the NATO command structure: if Finland decides to join, it will want to carefully target those postings that would be the most important in its eyes.
