Falklands vulnerable;
(4) Devolved Falklands would keep its influential lobby in London rather than be left alone with fairly modest own capabilities for influencing the international developments that affect the Islands.
Should the Falkland Islanders opt to keep their relationship with Britain, they ought to identify the UK interest in that relationship. Indeed, why should the UK be interested in keeping its constitutional link with the Falklands? The existing sentiments generated by the Falklands War are still vivid and deep – that War probably changed Britain as much as it changed the Falklands themselves – but would be less telling for the next generations.
As funds become available (e.g. should oil be discovered in commercial quantities), then the Falklands might possibly think about sharing the defense burden, just as the Channel Islands do contribute to the UK Treasury for the defense and foreign service provided by the UK. This certainly does not mean bearing the costs of RAF Mount Pleasant or of naval protection – surely the people of Brize Norton do not pay for RAF Brize Norton but are taxed for defense like anyone else in the UK. With a current defense budget of 32 billion US dollars and population of 60 millions, defense expenditure would amount to some 533 dollars per capita, suggesting that a fair Falklands contribution could be no more than 1.6 million dollars annually. There would be a case for deducting the FIDF (Falkland Islands Defense Force) costs though.
If the principle of such contribution is agreed, then its actual implementation could be adjusted to take into account the fact that the Falklands – unlike the Channel Islands or the UK – still has the top priority of building its essential infrastructure such as a national road network, a deep water port facility, and possibly a second urban settlement besides Stanley. (As pointed out by Councillor Jan Cheek during the discussion at my lecture, a certain Falklands contribution is already being made directly to the BFFI (British Forces Falkland Islands); her subsequently communicated estimate puts the present aggregate Falklands contribution to defense, with FIDF included, at some 1.1 million dollars per year – L.I.)
With respect to their link to Europe/EU via Britain, the Falklands should settle on a degree of association with the EU that suits them best, ranging from full EU integration like Gibraltar or French
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