Page:The New Far East (1906).djvu/236

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FOREIGN POLICIES IN CHINA
215

only bides her time until conditions make the formulation of an opposition policy feasible.

The other great powers who may be presumed from the logic of their situation to favor the "sphere of influence" doctrine are, of course, Russia and France. France is not active in the advancement of any special policy, but her inclination will be to support Russia under ordinary circumstances, in order to prevent Russia from flying to the arms of Germany. However, she will probably not take a decided stand either way, having at stake neither so much to win or lose as to warrant it.

With Russia it is different. Although defeated, and for the time distracted by internal problems, she is certain to emerge from these temporary disabilities and resume her position among the powers. While, owing to her defeat at the hands of Japan, her prestige in the Orient must temporarily suffer, her position on the borders of China will always make her felt at Peking, and she can never be left out of any reasonable estimation of political probabilities in connection with the Far Eastern question. The fact that Russia still occupies four-fifths of Manchuria should not be forgotten; and her position in Mongolia is unshaken. In a few years she will have her present Siberian Railway double-tracked, and the new line via Tashkent and Kokand finished, which will vastly increase her military potency in Asia. Besides, it is idle to assume that she will abandon what is to her a permanent purpose, and her still great material interests on the Pacific. That