will it be for every one of us to find the answer to the question: whether close commercial relations between Russia and America will be possible in the future. This question is undoubtedly of great interest and of great importance. I shall permit myself to give a very direct and definite answer to this question. My answer is: Trade relations between Russia and America are possible, desirable, and must necessarily come about, as a result of the natural trend of things. But it is clear that a rapprochement of this kind cannot come of itself. It is necessary that both sides should make efforts to eliminate the unfavorable circumstances in the way, and to create favorable ones.
I consider the inadequate development of both the Russian and the American mercantile marine as one of the unfavorable factors in this connection. It seems to me that most serious attention should be given to this matter, in order to remove the difficulties which have hitherto stood in our way. A detailed discussion of this subject would lead me too far, and I am compelled, therefore, to content myself with just this suggestion.
If it is desirable that the trade relations between the two countries should be close, animated, and long-lasting, it is necessary that such relations should be profitable not alone for one of the countries, but for both. In other words, the trade relations should not be one-sided. Therefore, I shall permit myself to warn you against being carried away by the thought that export trade from America to Russia should be brought about at any cost. Such export relations can and will develop only when there will exist, and be ready for development, an equivalent in value import of Russian goods to America. This, perhaps, is so plain, that it scarcely needs special proof.
In speaking about the future trade relations, it is natural that the question should arise as to what goods can be exported, and what goods can be imported. I think that it would be perhaps a little hazardous on my part to give a detailed list of such goods. This question can be settled only by a most elaborate and careful study of all conditions of the markets in each department of trade. These conditions change continually: goods that cannot be sold to-day may be sold very readily to-morrow. Moreover, it is absolutely impossible to forecast to-day the market conditions that will exist after the war.
My presence in this country is in connection with purchasing for Russia rails, locomotives, cars, and other railroad supplies. There seems to be an impression that after the war there are fair prospects for export trade in this line. Therefore, I think
