in this country as to the productiveness of the harvest abroad. A scarcity here and high will draw the surplus corn from every quarter of the globe to us but it will not cease to flow when the source of supply is abundant, however low the price may fall in this country. It is an axiom in political economy that no article can remain long below the cost of production. But that cost of is very different in different countries. In this country the cost of producing wheat may be taken at the maximum. In other countries where rent, rates, or wages are greatly lower than ours, and especially where, as in Southern Russia and the valley of the Mississippi, there are likewise boundless tracts of most fertile soil, they can continue to produce wheat at prices which would entail loss on the grower in England. Moreover the vast machinery of production, once set in motion, will maintain its momentum for a considerable period after the stimulus has been withdrawn. Thus in 1860, in consequence of two deficient harvests, the price rose 10s. a quarter, and the imports increased one-third over those of 1859. They continued to swell in volume until 1863, the year of abundance, when the price fell 10s. a quarter. The imports did not then decline in the same proportion; indeed but for the disturbance of the American trade, caused by the war, there would have been no decline, and if we exclude America for that reason, and limit ourselves to Russia and Germany, which between them have furnished us with 40 per cent. of our imports since the Crimean War, I find that during 1863, 1864, and 1865, when the average price varied between 40s. and 45s., the imports continued at much the same rate as in the two preceding years, when the price was 55s.
A very productive harvest in France will exercise an immediate influence on prices in this country. Not only does her demand for foreign corn cease, but from the small average yield and the vast acreage under wheat a slight increase in the produce tells quickly up. Last year I computed an increase of one bushel on the acre in France at upwards of 2,000,000 qrs. If her increase has been in anything like the same ratio as ours, France will have a large surplus for export, probably quite enough to meet any decline caused deficient crop in Southern Russia.
Steady Decline in the Price of Wheat under Free Trade.
The effect of free trade in corn has been to lower the price of wheat in this country, notwithstanding the increase of the population and consequent increased consumption. The average price of the twenty years preceding 1848 was 57s. 4d., and of the twenty years of free trade, 52s. 3d. But if the disturbing influences of the cessation of supplies from Russia during the Crimean War, and from America during the later years and since the close of the
