changes mentioned above, which are possible but inevitably time consuming, often personally challenging and a drain on resources. Arguably, then, this external influence has forced changes that have meant less attention and resource could be allocated to MOOC experimentation than might have been possible in previous eras.
A sudden, and large-scale defection of learners to MOOCs away from formal study would be precarious for the OU; however, this does not appear to be imminent. Indeed, it could be argued that MOOCs and formal education are complementary to one another, as MOOCs lead to low-risk engagement from learners, a proportion of which is then realised as formal study. A range of strategic analyses of MOOCs have been conducted at the OU (e. g. Sharples et al. 2012), from a pedagogic, technical and commercial perspective, which suggest that precariousness is not a major factor at this particular time, although there is a possibility for MOOCs to have an impact upon core business in the future. FutureLearn is seen as a deliberate attempt to reduce any threat of precariousness by owning a strategic, political solution to MOOCs.
Panarchy
The influence of external forces is particularly relevant in this period, with a global financial crisis, an ongoing European crisis and changes in the higher education funding model in the UK. All of these factors may lead to a decline in the number of students entering and remaining in higher education programs. They probably also account for much of the interest in MOOCs, with open courses being proposed as a solution to the problem of costly higher education (e. g. Kamenetz 2010).
As mentioned, the changes in funding structure have necessitated large-scale institutional change at the OU, combined with a
