the war and the two years succeeding the slackness of labor curtailed production. It became difficult, and even impossible, to obtain many articles that were wanted and formerly were easily available. Often a shopper would have to visit many places in order to find the thing that was desired. Even at the middle of 1921 that condition still exists. In spite of the accumulation of stocks of certain raw materials, copper for example, throughout 1920, and of certain manufactured goods, automobile tires for example in the last quarter of 1920, it is highly probable that the total stock of goods per person in the United States was less in quantity at the end of 1920 than at the end of 1916, but the total of inventories was greatly increased, for at the end of 1920 the index number of prices was about 200, compared with 125 at the end of 1916 and 100 in 1913. If I conjecture the physical quantity of the goods in stock at the end of 1920 at eight months supply I think that again I shall be conservative.
Upon the basis of such assumptions, I may estimate the stock at the end of 1912 at $225 per person; at the end of 1916 at $202.50 per person; and at the end of 1920 at $180 per person. Multiplying these figures by the number of people gives roundly 20.6 billion dollars for the end of 1916 and 19 billion dollars for the end of 1920. My instinct is that the latter figure is too high, and it may be as much as five billion dollars too high. It would be that much too high if the total stock of goods were only six months supply.
This reckoning manifestly does not take into account stocks accumulated and held by the Government. At the end of 1918 the War Department is reported to have had goods to the value of about 3.5 billion
