SPC Mesoscale Discussion 513 (2024)/Annotation

Mesoscale Discussion 0513
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Areas affected...northeast Colorado into much of northwest Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 251923Z - 252200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are expected to rapidly develop along the boundary from northeast Colorado into northwest Kansas, and far southwest Nebraska. Very large hail is likely, along with a few tornadoes and damaging gusts.

DISCUSSION...Strong heating persists across the region, now on both sides of a stationary front extending from northeast CO into northwest KS. Southeasterly surface winds have brought 50s F dewpoints westward into CO, which is contributing to up to 2000 J/kg MUCAPE within the narrow moist plume. Moderate southwest flow aloft atop the backed low-level southeasterlies is further aiding shear near the boundary which strongly favors long-lived severe storms. Supercells or bows will be possible producing very large hail, a few tornadoes and damaging gusts.

..Jewell/Hart.. 04/25/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU...^[1]

LAT...LON 38840054 38690063 38620074 38550110 38870201 39380281 39530324 39720340 39990338 40240327 40400311 40480274 40470196 40420132 40240087 39970060 39580042 39020048 38840054

1. WFO means "Warning Forecast Office". The offices listed here is the National Weather Service (NWS) office in North Platte, Nebraska (NWS LBF), Dodge City, Kansas (NWS DDC), Goodland, Kansas (NWS GLD), and Boulder, Colorado (NWS BOU) (Wikisource contributor note)