likely capable of conducting nuclear precision strikes against targets in the Indo-Pacific theater. The PRC is probably also developing a strategic stealth bomber, according to PRC state media.
Future Developments. Over the next decade, the PRC probably will continue to pursue selective qualitative parity with an increasing scope of U.S. and Russian capabilities. The PLA seeks a diverse nuclear force, comprised of systems ranging from low-yield precision strike missiles to ICBMs with multi-megaton yields. Developing robust nuclear strike options is likely intended to provide deterrence predominantly against a “strong enemy,” as well as ensure China can inflict unacceptable damage with both proportionate and overwhelming retaliatory capabilities, and thus denying an adversary victory if a war escalates to the nuclear domain.
The PRC is establishing new nuclear materials production and reprocessing facilities very likely to support its nuclear force expansion. Although these efforts are consistent with the PRC’s goals to increase nuclear energy generation and to close its nuclear fuel cycle, Beijing likely also considers this dual-use infrastructure as crucial to supporting its military goals, judging from Chinese nuclear industry reporting and think tank publications. Despite the PRC’s public support for a Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty (FMCT), it is likely that Beijing intends to use this infrastructure to produce nuclear warhead materials for its military in the near term. For example, the PRC’s efforts to impede progress at the Conference on Disarmament (CD) run contrary to its stated commitments of a FMCT.
- Plutonium Production. The PRC is constructing, with Russian assistance including in the form of highly enriched uranium (HEU) supply, two CFR-600 sodium-cooled fast breeder nuclear reactors at Xiapu, each capable of producing enough plutonium for dozens of nuclear warheads annually from blankets (referring to uranium placed around the fuel core for the purpose of breeding plutonium) surrounding the core, according to think tank estimates and informed by Chinese state media and nuclear industry reporting. The PRC originally planned to use Russian-sourced mixed-oxide (MOX is a blend of uranium and plutonium) fuel for these reactors but changed the order to highly enriched uranium (HEU) fuel through 2030, according to nuclear industry reporting. By using HEU fuel, China has the potential to generate additional weapons-grade plutonium. Chinese officials claim the CFR-600 reactors are intended to help the PRC achieve its civilian nuclear power and carbon neutrality objectives, but the PRC has described the CFR-600s as a “national defense investment project” subject to military nuclear facility regulations. By December 2022, Russia delivered the first three batches of HEU nuclear fuel assemblies, to China for the first core loading and the first refueling of the CFR600. In early 2023, think-tank reporting indicates the quantity of HEU transferred from Russia to China for its CFR-600 reactors is more than the entire amount of HEU removed worldwide under U.S. and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) auspices in the last three decades. In March 2023, the PRC and Russia signed an agreement that includes commitments for continued cooperation on fast reactor and reprocessing technology development, extending this relationship for “the decades ahead.”
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OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE
Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China
