Page:Brundtland Report.djvu/172

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English
Page 172

TABLE 7-1
Global Primary Energy Consumption Per Capita, 1984

World Bank GNP Economy Category	GNP Per Capita	Energy Consumption	Mid-1984 Population	Total Consumption
	(1984 dollars)	(kW per capita*/)	(million)	(TW)
Low Income	260	0.41	2,390	0.99
Sub-Saharan Africa	210	0.08	258	0.02
Middle Income	1,250	1.07	1,188	1.27
Lower-middle	740	0.57	691	0.39
Upper-middle	1,950	1.76	497	0.87
Sub-Saharan Africa	660	0.25	148	0.04
High-Income Oil Exporters	11,250	5.17	19	0.10
Industrial Market Economies	11,430	7.01	733	5.14
East European Non-Market Economies	--	6.27	389	2.44
World	--	2.11 **/	4,718	9.94
*/ kW per capita is kW years/year per capita.
**/ Population-weighted average energy consumption (kW/capita) for first three main categories is 0.654 and for industrial market and East European categories is 6.76.
Source: Based on World Bank, World Development Report 1986 (New York: Oxford University Press, 1986).

9. How practical are any of these scenarios? Energy analysts have conducted many studies of global energy futures to the years 2020-2030.^[1] Such studies do not provide forecasts of future energy needs, but they explore how various technical, economic, and environmental factors may interact with supply and demand. Two of these are reviewed in Box 7-2, though a much wider range of scenarios - from 5 TW up to 63 TW – are available.

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1. For a useful comparison of various scenarios, see J. Goldemberg et al., 'An End-Use Oriented Global Energy strategy', Annual Review of Energy, Vol. 10, 1985; and W. Keepin et al., 'Emissions of CO₂ into the Atmosphere', in B. Bolin et al. (eds.), The Greenhouse Effect, Climate Change and Ecosystems (Chichester, UK: Jokn Wiley & Sons, 1986).