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BOX 7-2
Two Indicative Energy Scenarios
Case A - High Scenario
By the year 2030, a 35 TW future would involve producing 1.6 times as much oil, 3.4 times as much natural gas, and nearly 5 times as much coal as in 1980. This increase in fossil fuel use implies bringing the equivalent of a new Alaska pipeline into production every one to two years. Nuclear capacity would have to be increased 30 times over 1980 levels - equivalent to installing a new nuclear power station generating 1-gigawatt of electricity every two to four days. This 35 TW scenario is still well below the 55 TW future that assumes today's levels of energy consumption per capita in industrial countries are achieved in all countries.
Case B - Low Scenario
Taking the 11.2 TW scenario as a highly optimistic example of a strong conservation strategy, 2020 energy demand in developing and industrial countries is quoted as 7.3 TW and 3.9 TW respectively, as compared with 3.3 TW and 7.0 TW in 1980. This would mean a saving of 3.1 TW in industrial countries by 2020 and an additional requirement of 4.0 TW in developing countries. Even if developing countries were able to acquire the liberated primary resource, they would still be left with a shortfall of 0.9 TW in primary supply. Such a deficit is likely to be much greater (possibly two to three times), given the extreme level of efficiency required for this scenario, which is unlikely to be realized by most governments. In 1980, the following breakdown of primary supply was quoted: oil, 4.2 TW; coal, 2.4; gas, 1.72; renewables, 1.7; and nuclear, 0.2. The question is where will the shortfall in primary energy supply come from? This rough calculation serves to illustrate that the postulated average growth of around 30 per cent per capita in primary consumption in developing countries will still require considerable amounts of primary supply even under extremely efficient energy usage regimes.
Sources: The 35 TW scenario was originated in Energy System Group of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Energy in a Finite World - Global Systems Analysis, (Cambridge, Mass.: Ballinger. 1981): all other calculations are from J. Goldemberg et al., An End-Use Oriented Global Energy Strategy, Annual review of Energy, Vol, 10. 1985.
