Page:Brundtland Report.djvu/174

A/42/427
English
Page 174

In general, the lover scenarios (24.4 TW by 2030,^[1] 11.2 TW by 2020,^[2] and 5.2 by 2030^[3]) require an energy efficiency revolution. The higher scenarios (18.8 TW by 2025,^[4] 24.7 TW by 2020,^[5] and 35.2 by 2030^[6]) aggravate the environmental pollution problems that we have experienced since the Second World War.

10. The economic implications of a high energy future are disturbing. A recent World Bank Study indicates that for the period 1980-95, a 4.1 per cent annual growth in energy consumption, approximately comparable to Case A in Box 7-2, would require an average annual investment of some $130 billion (in 1982 dollars) in developing countries alone. This would involve doubling the share of energy investment in terms of aggregate gross dolestic product.^[7] About half of this would have to come from foreign exchange and the rest from internal upending on energy in developing countries.

11, The environmental risks and uncertainties of a high energy future are also disturbing and give rise to several reservations. Four stand out:

• the serious probability of climate change generated by the 'greenhouse effect' of gases emitted to the atmosphere, the most important of which is carbon dioxide (CO₂) produced from the combustion of fossil fuels^[8];
• urban-industrial air pollution caused by atmospheric pollutants from the combustion of fossil fuels^[9];
• acidification of the environment from the same causes ; and ^[10]
• the risks of nuclear reactor accidents, the problems of waste disposal and dismantling of reactors after their service life is over, and the dangers of proliferation associated with the use of nuclear energy.

Along with these, a major poblem arises from the growing scarcity of fuelwood in developing countries. If trends continue, by the year 2000 around 2.4 billion people may be living in areas where wood is extremely scarce.^[11]

12. These reservations apply at even lower levels of energy use. A study that proposed energy consumption at only half the levels of Case A (Box 7-2) drew special attention to the risks of global warming from CO₂.^[12] The study indicated that a realistic fuel mix - a virtual guadrupling of coal and a doubling of gas use, along with 1.4 times as much oil - could cause significant global warming by the 2020s. No technology currently exists to remove CO₂ emissions from fossil fuel combustion. The high coal use vould also increase emissions of oxides of sulphur and nitrogen, much of which turns to acids in the atmosphere. Technologies to remove these latter emissions are now required in some countries in all new end even some old facilities, but they can increase investment costs by 15-25 per cent.^[13] If countries are not prepared to incur these expenses, this path becomes even more infeasible, a limitation that applies much more to the higher energy futures that rely to

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1. U. Colombo and O. Bernadini, 'A Low Energy Growth Scenario and the Perspectives for Western Europe', Report for the Commission of the European Communities Panel on Low Energy Growth, 1979.
2. Goldemberg et al., 'Global Energy Strategy', op. cit.
3. A.B. Lovins et al., 'Energy Strategy for Low Climatic Risk', Report for the German Federal Environment Agency, 1981.
4. J.A. Edmonds et al., 'An Analysis of Possible Future Atmospheric Retention of Fossil Fuel CO₂', Report for U.S. Department of Energy, DOE/OR/21400 1, Washington, DC, 1984.
5. J-R Frisch (ed.), Energy 2000-2020: World Prospects and Regional Stresses, World Energy Conference (London: Graham and Trotman, 1983).
6. Energy Systems Group of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Energy in a Finite World - A Global Systems Analysis (Cambridge, Mass.: Ballinger, 1981).
7. World Bank, The Energy Transition in Developing Countries (Washington, DC: 1983).
8. World Meteorological Organization, A Report of the International Conference on the Assessment of the Role of Carbon Dioxide and of Other Greenhouse Gases in Climate Variations and Associated impacts, Villach, Austria, 9– 15 October 1985, WMO No. 661 (Geneva: WMO/ICSU/UNEP, 1986).
9. B.N. Lohani, 'Evaluation of Air Pollution Control Programmes and Strategies in Seven Asian Capital Cities', prepared for WCED, 1985; H. Weidner, 'Air Pollution control Strategies and Policies in the Federal Republic of Germany' prepared for WCED, 1985; M. Hashimoto, 'National Air Quality Management Policy of Jpan', prepared for WCED, 1985; CTESB, 'Air Pollution Control Programme and Strategies in Brazil — Sao Paulo and Cubatao Areas 1985', prepared for WCED, 1985.
10. National Research Council, Acid Deposition: Long Term Trends (Washington, DC: National Academy Press, 1985); L.P. Muniz and H. Leiverstad, 'Acidification Effects on Freshwater Fish', in D. Drablos and A. Tollan (eds.), Ecological Impact of Acid Precipitation (Oslo: SNSF, 1980); L. Hallbäcken and C.O. Tamm, 'Changes in Soil Acidity from 1927 to 1982–4 in a Forest Area of South West Sweden', Scandinavian Journal of Forest Research, No. 1, pp. 219–32, 1986.
11. FAO, Fuelwood Supplies in the Developing Countries, Forestry Paper No. 42 (Rome: 1983); Z. Mikdashi, 'Towards a New Petroleum Order', Natural Resources Forum, October 1986.
12. Edmonds et al., op. cit.
13. I.M. Torrens, 'Acid Rain and Air Pollution, A Problem of Industrialization', prepared for WCFI). 1985.