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half. And, except for the British ruse, it is quite possible, as one German post-mortem claimed, that an additional 160 bombers would have been shot down (29, 30).
A final remark relative to the frailties of human information processing; a reading of the literature suggests the hypothesis that "actors tend to dismiss unlikelx events as impossible events." Such a concept favors bold and imaginative strategies such as Hannibal crossing the Alps or the landing at Inchon. A similar thought prompted Handel's second paradox relevant to self-deception (31):
| “ | Paradox #2: The greater the risk, the less likely it seems, and the less risky it actually becomes. Thus, the greater the risk, the smaller it becomes. | ” |
Maxim 3: Multiple Forms of Surprise
| “ | Surprise can be achieved in many forms. In military engagements, these forms include location, strength, intention, style and timing. Should it not prove attractive or feasible to achieve surprise in all dimentions, it may still be possible to | ” |
