- The question for the UK is how China's global aims and ambitions affect the UK. The Intelligence Community have been clear that China's view of an ideal future—where it is a world power—would be antithetical to the UK's interests:
If you think of UK interests as being in favour of good governance and transparency and good economic management, which I think is fair, we regard those as things which are good in their own right but also serve our national interest because it helps with trade, investment, prosperity and stability and so forth, then I think that China represents a risk on a pretty wide scale.[1]
- The UK is unlikely to be the top priority for China when it comes to espionage and interference: the US, and perceived domestic threats to the CCP's rule (known as 'the Five Poisons'—Taiwanese independence, Tibetan independence, Xinjiang separatists, the Chinese democracy movement and the Falun Gong), are likely to receive the most attention from the Chinese Intelligence Services (ChIS). Nevertheless, the JIC Chair explained:
China sees almost all of its global activity in the context of what it sees as the struggle between the United States and China, and therefore it sees the United Kingdom fundamentally through that optic. China aspires to split off from the United States countries which it thinks might be detachable, and they sometimes have a sunnily optimistic view about which countries might be susceptible to that treatment. I would say that that was their single biggest issue with the United Kingdom.[2]
- In addition, the UK's membership of various international bodies of significance to China, and the perception of the UK as an international opinion-former, makes the UK of interest in the context of China's strategy to reshape international systems in its favour. The JIC Chair explained to the Committee:
China sees the United Kingdom as an important bellwether, an important country in guiding opinion on Chinese affairs within the European Union. It sees us as a global player, not of course of the same stature as the United States but nevertheless a country still of considerable influence.[3]
GCHQ further observed: "We are really important to them … where we are performing that international leadership role."[4]
- Linked to the UK's position as an opinion-former, the UK's unique historical role in China—particularly, but not exclusively, in relation to Hong Kong—is likely to make the UK a higher-profile target. In terms of Hong Kong, SIS recognised that:
activism around Hong Kong and the way in which Hong Kong has become a more pressing issue means that we have probably gone up the stack in terms of their interest.[5]
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