Page:Lombard Street (1917).djvu/334

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306
LOMBARD STREET

precautions of the Bank take time to operate. The principal precaution is a rise in the rate of discount, and such a rise certainly does attract money from the Continent and from all the world much faster than could have been anticipated. But it does not act instantaneously; even the right rate, the ultimately attractive rate, requires .an interval for its action, and before the money can come here. And the right rate is often not discovered for some time. It requires several "moves," as the phrase goes, several augmentations of the rate of discount by the Bank, before the really effectual rate is reached, and in the meantime bullion is ebbing away and the "reserve" is diminishing. Unless, therefore, in times when the Bank is taking no precautions the actual reserve exceed the "apprehension minimum" by at least the amount which may be taken away in the inevitable interval, and before the available precautions begin to operate, the rule prescribed will be infringed, and the actual reserve will be less than the "apprehension minimum." In time the precautions taken may attract gold and raise the reserve to the needful amount, but in the interim the evils may happen against which the rule was devised, diffused apprehension may arise, and then any unlucky accident may cause many calamities.

I may be asked, "What does all this reasoning in practice come to? At the present moment how much reserve do you say the Bank of England