NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 2011
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appreciable forewarning. Although reliable reports do not indicate the presence of armored units on the Indochina border, a division of armored cars, plus a battalion of tanks attached to the Fourth Field Army, are stationed in South China -within 700 miles of the frontier. Moreover, approximately 150,000 additional Chinese Communist troops could arrive at the Indochina border within ten days to bolster initial invading forces. Even in the event of a simultaneous assult on Taiwan, these feinforcements would he available and would bring the potential invading force to a total of at least 250,000 troops. In view of the Chinese Communists' improving capability for waterlift, it is possible that some invasion forces might be moved by sea to Viet Minh-hold sections of the Indochina coast. There is no evidence, however, of Chinese Communist preparations for such a move.
"Although there have been no indications of any significant build-up of Chinese Communist Air Force strength in Southwest China and although this air force has not yet appeared in combat, the estimated 200–250 operational combat types (including fighters and light bombers) in the Chinese Communist Air Force could furnish effective air support to operations in Indochina. There are six airfields in China within 170 miles of the Tonkin border. In addition, construction of new airfields and the restoration of others in Southwest China are reportedly in progress in the Tonkin Kwangsi border area and on Heinan Island."
5. Viet Minh Military Capabilities (ORE 50-50)
"The forces of Ho Chi Minh, which have been engaged in resistance activities against the French since September 1945, are capable of expanding their operations. Ho's organisation, commonly known as the 'Viet Minh', possesses approximately 92,500 regular troops and an estimated 130,000 irregulars. The Viet Minh forces include 2,000 Khmer Issaraka in Cambodia and 500 Issaraks in Laos.
"The Viet Minh forces are geared primarily for guarrilla warfare. The demonstrated effectiveness of a few task forces, each totaling as many as three to five thousand men and equiped with adequate infantry weapons and some artillary, points to a developing capability for more conventional warfare. Under present circumstances, the Viet Minh should have little difficulty in maintaining relative freedom of action throughout most of indochina while simultaneously supporting pockets of resistance within French-occupied territory and continuing to harass French lines of communication. In addition, the Viet Minh is capable of seising one or more French border outposts and holding them for a short time at least.
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